BYU has seen unexpected success to start the 2024 season. At 5-0, the Cougars host the preseason favorite Arizona Wildcats in a pivotal Week 7 showdown for the Big 12 race.
A week after upsetting Utah, can the Wildcats pull off another upset in Provo? Let’s dive into our Arizona vs. BYU prediction.
Arizona vs. BYU Betting Preview
All Arizona vs. BYU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -2.5 - Spread
BYU -2.5 - Moneyline
BYU -142, Arizona +120 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 4 p.m. ET - Location
LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
The Vegas line is conforming to what College Football Network’s FPM has had the whole time. After starting at BYU -3.5 and quickly jumping to BYU -4.5, it has steadily fallen across the week.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Now, it’s sitting at BYU -3, though it has touched -2.5, where CFN has had it all along.
Arizona’s Winning Probability
Arizona has a 45.7% chance to win on Saturday. As is the case with many Big 12 schools, the Wildcats have plenty of toss-up games that could go either way left on their schedule.
- at BYU: 45.7%
- vs. Colorado: 64.6%
- vs. West Virginia: 58.9%
- at UCF: 62.6%
- vs. Houston: 89.8%
- at TCU: 70.3%
- vs. Arizona State: 70.3%
BYU’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit lower on BYU in this one than Vegas is.
FPM has the Cougars as 2.5-point favorites, giving them a win probability of 54.3%. BYU is a favorite in every game except the Holy War this year, and its season is shaping up for an exciting stretch run.
- vs. Arizona: 54.3%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 63.1%
- at UCF: 68.8%
- at Utah: 45.7%
- vs. Kansas: 80.6%
- at Arizona State: 65.1%
- vs. Houston:90.8%
Prediction for Arizona vs. BYU
I love this BYU squad right now, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The coaching staff has does an exceptional job of taking away the offense’s Plan A.
For Arizona, that’s the dynamic duo of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, usually on plays down the field. The unfortunate part for the Wildcats is that there really hasn’t been a Plan B. Fifita and McMillan have connected for a few huge games, but the rest of the offense hasn’t really kept up.
I don’t expect BYU to shut down McMillan completely, but the Cougars probably don’t have to. As long as they don’t allow him to completely take over the game, Arizona should have trouble scoring enough to push the BYU offense away from its gameplan.
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While Arizona’s defense has improved significantly over the course of the season, BYU’s offense is multiple enough to prevent the Wildcats from locking in on one guy. The combination of Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter on the outside has been especially good in the red zone.
It really hasn’t mattered who is running the ball for the Cougars, as the balanced ground attack has opened up throwing lanes for quarterback Jake Retzlaff.
I don’t think it’s a blowout, and I do think the Cougars get beaten somewhere down the road, perhaps a few times, but this isn’t the week to call the upset.
Prediction: BYU 28, Arizona 20
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