The Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers were beyond lucky to escape with home wins last week, leading to a clash between two 5-1 teams with fanbases that don’t feel great.
While neither team looks particularly dangerous, each controls its destiny to the College Football Playoff. Find out who we think wins in this Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -2 - Spread
Alabama -3 - Moneyline
Alabama -148, Tennessee +124 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Neyland Stadium | Knoxville, TN - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, sunny, three mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Alabama opened as a narrow favorite on Sunday, and the line has crept further away from the Vols during the week. The Crimson Tide has historically had the advantage over Tennessee, with the 2022 victory for Josh Heupel’s team standing out like a sore thumb in a run of modern-era defeat. Alabama holds a 59-39-7 all-time head-to-head winning record over their SEC foe.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Tennessee actually has a better spread record than Alabama this season, covering four times compared to the 3-3 record for the Crimson Tide. Kalen DeBoer’s team has failed to cover the last two games (albeit as a three-score favorite). That said, the Vols have also failed to cover in the last two outings. Saturday marks the first time in 2024 they enter the game as an underdog.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
FPM favors the Crimson Tide, but only slightly. According to the metric, Alabama has a 52.8% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about two points. This game represents one of Alabama’s toughest challenges of the year, with the only game with a lower win probability being a road game in Baton Rouge. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Tennessee: 52.8%
- vs. Missouri: 80.2%
- at LSU: 50.0%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 79.3%
- at USC: 94.1%
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Volunteers have a 47.2% chance to win the game, per FPM. This game represents Tennessee’s second-toughest challenge on the rest of the schedule. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Alabama: 47.2%
- vs. Kentucky: 81.6%
- vs. Mississippi State: 95.9%
- at Georgia: 25.4%
- vs UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 79.6%
Prediction for Alabama vs. Tennessee
Each team has a typically strong unit that has disappointed so far. The Crimson Tide defense looked impenetrable in the first half of the Georgia game, but it has since given up 63 points in its last 10 quarters.
On the flip side, Josh Heupel’s offenses are always among the best in th conference, but this season has been a struggle against SEC opponents. After surpassing the 50-point threshold in the non-conference schedule, Tennessee has scored 25 or fewer points in three straight games, failing to reach the 20-point mark in regulation of the last two.
The question is: which unit is more concerning?
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For me, the answer is Tennessee’s offense, as outside of Squirrel White and Dylan Sampson, there seems to be a lack of playmakers. Nico Iamaleava has looked like a freshman against SEC defenses, as he’s averaged just 174 yards in three conference games, throwing just one touchdown and taking 10 sacks in the process.
The other units, while strong, have shown cracks as well. Tennessee has benefitted from three straight games where the opponent had to change its quarterback (Oklahoma by choice, Arkansas, and Florida due to injury). Florida led 10-0 when Graham Mertz left injured, scoring just seven points the rest of the game.
Alabama’s offensive line gave up a ton of pressure against South Carolina’s talented front. Now they have the Tennessee front seven, and that’s the key to the game.
If Alabama can keep Jalen Milroe somewhat clean, it has the playmakers on the outside to score on Tennessee. On the other hand, I just don’t see much changing for the Tennessee offense unless Alabama busts more coverages defensively.
I think Alabama will fix some of the defensive issues. I can’t guarantee the same for Tennessee’s offense.
Give me Alabama (I already took the Crimson Tide when they were +1 Saturday) in a “get right” game. Iamaleava will have more freshmen growing pains, and all talks of a repeat of the 1998 season will cease in Knoxville.
I’m leaning towards the under, as I don’t think Tennessee goes from 31 combined points in regulation against Florida and Arkansas to almost that much against Alabama.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Tennessee 17
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