It’s been a weird season for the Alabama Crimson Tide in their first year AN (After Nick), but they’re finding their groove and are still in the race for the College Football Playoff and SEC Championship. For the Oklahoma Sooners, the only thing left to play for is pride and a bowl berth in their first season in the “best conference” in college football. Now, they meet in Week 13.
Who will prevail? Our Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Oklahoma odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -12 - Spread
Alabama -13.5 - Moneyline
Alabama -520, Oklahoma +390 - Over/Under
47 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium | Norman, OK - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
There’s not a long-running history between these two programs, and Saturday’s first encounter as SEC foes is only the sixth all-time meeting. Four of those matchups have come in the postseason, with Alabama emerging victorious from their previous clash in the 2018 Capital One Orange Bowl. Oklahoma leads 3-2-1 and won both regular season games (2002-2003).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Unsurprisingly, given the current trajectory of both programs, the Crimson Tide is a significant favorite, according to DraftKings and the CFN FPM. Alabama has won their last three and covered the spread when favored, including as a 42.5-point favorite against FCS Mercer. That said, Oklahoma covered the last time they were a double-digit underdog — against the Ole Miss Rebels.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is closely aligned with Vegas here, making the Crimson Tide 12-point favorites over the Sooners and giving it an 81.6% chance to win. The Crimson Tide will be heavy favorites in the Iron Bowl as well, and if it wins both, Kalen DeBoer will hit an incredible mark.
- at Oklahoma: 81.6%
- vs. Auburn: 93.9%
Oklahoma’s Winning Probability
Oklahoma still needs a win to make a bowl, and the Sooners will need to pull off an upset to do it, with just a road tilt at the LSU Tigers remaining next week. The odds that Oklahoma wins one of its remaining two games are just under 39%.
- vs. Alabama: 18.4%
- at LSU: 25.1%
Prediction for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
A few uninformed casuals have tried to take shots at DeBoer and the Crimson Tide this season, but Alabama is humming once again. In his career, DeBoer has lost more games in Year 1 with a program (nine) than in the rest of his career combined (five).
DeBoer is currently first all-time in winning percentage among coaches to coach at least one year at the Division I level. But that record doesn’t kick in until he finishes his 10th year. As long as the Crimson Tide finish the year 9-3 or better, that record is his.
That’s not the most important storyline here for most, but it’s evidence of how good Alabama’s new coach has been in his career. He’s won everywhere he’s been, and now he’s winning with the Crimson Tide.
Alabama is still a contender, and Jalen Milroe is still a dark horse Heisman Trophy contender. He ran all over the LSU Tigers’ defense en route to a blowout win the last time out, which happened to be in a road SEC night game.
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There are no excuses for the Oklahoma offense. The team tried and failed to portal an offensive line. That unit has been so bad that it hasn’t mattered one bit that the Sooners’ receivers are once again healthy. Jackson Arnold has been equally awful, and it seems almost as if the Sooners are on “quit” watch.
It’s a shame because the Sooners’ defense is actually one of the stronger units in the conference, it’s just gotten no help from the other side of the ball, but the Alabama defense is susceptible to big plays, something the Sooners have run into a few times this season on offense.
That’s the path to victory for the Sooners. If they can contain Milroe and create some explosives on offense, they’ll have a chance to win.
But I don’t think either of those happens. Oklahoma will likely put all of its focus on Milroe, which should open up space in the running and screen games.
Even if Alabama does get off to a slow start, this Oklahoma offense can’t manufacture consistent offense. I think the Sooners’ defense can play a really good game though to hold Alabama somewhat in check. It won’t be nearly enough to win outright though.
I’m holding my nose here by backing a bad team, but I do think the Oklahoma defense can stump Alabama’s somewhat one-dimensional offense.
Back the under and the Sooners, but Alabama should still win fairly easily.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Oklahoma 17
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