The Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers narrowly escaped with home wins last week, setting up a showdown between two 5-1 teams whose fanbases remain uneasy.
Though neither team appears particularly formidable, both still hold their fate in their hands when it comes to the College Football Playoff. Here’s our prediction for who comes out on top in this Alabama vs. Tennessee matchup.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -2 - Spread
Alabama -3 - Moneyline
Alabama -148, Tennessee +124 - Over/Under
57 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Neyland Stadium | Knoxville, TN - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, sunny, three mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Alabama opened as a narrow favorite on Sunday, and the line has crept further away from the Vols during the week. The Crimson Tide has historically had the advantage over Tennessee, with the 2022 victory for Josh Heupel’s team standing out like a sore thumb in a run of modern-era defeat. Alabama holds a 59-39-7 all-time head-to-head winning record over their SEC foe.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Tennessee actually has a better spread record than Alabama this season, covering four times compared to the 3-3 record for the Crimson Tide. Kalen DeBoer’s team has failed to cover the last two games (albeit as a three-score favorite). That said, the Vols have also failed to cover in the last two outings. Saturday marks the first time in 2024 they enter the game as an underdog.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
FPM favors the Crimson Tide, but only slightly. According to the metric, Alabama has a 52.8% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about two points. This game represents one of Alabama’s toughest challenges of the year, with the only game with a lower win probability being a road game in Baton Rouge. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Tennessee: 52.8%
- vs. Missouri: 80.2%
- at LSU: 50.0%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 79.3%
- at USC: 94.1%
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Volunteers have a 47.2% chance to win the game, per FPM. This game represents Tennessee’s second-toughest challenge on the rest of the schedule. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Alabama: 47.2%
- vs. Kentucky: 81.6%
- vs. Mississippi State: 95.9%
- at Georgia: 25.4%
- vs UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 79.6%
Prediction for Alabama vs. Tennessee
Each team has a typically strong unit that has underperformed this season. The Crimson Tide defense appeared nearly unbeatable in the first half against Georgia, but they’ve since allowed 63 points over their last 10 quarters.
Conversely, Josh Heupel’s offenses are usually among the best in the conference, but this season has been a struggle against SEC foes. After putting up over 50 points during their non-conference slate, Tennessee has managed 25 or fewer points in three straight games, failing to reach 20 points in regulation in the last two.
The real question is: which unit should raise more concerns?
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For me, the answer lies with Tennessee’s offense. Aside from Squirrel White and Dylan Sampson, the team seems to lack dynamic playmakers. Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has looked his age against SEC defenses, averaging just 174 passing yards across three conference games, with only one touchdown and 10 sacks.
The other units, while solid, have shown vulnerabilities too. Tennessee has been fortunate to face three consecutive opponents who changed quarterbacks during their games (Oklahoma by choice, Arkansas, and Florida due to injury). Florida was up 10-0 before Graham Mertz got hurt, and they managed just seven points afterward.
Alabama’s offensive line struggled against South Carolina’s formidable front. Now, they’ll face Tennessee’s front seven, which could be a deciding factor in the game.
If Alabama can give Jalen Milroe a clean pocket, they have the playmakers on the outside to put up points against Tennessee. Meanwhile, I don’t see Tennessee’s offensive struggles improving unless Alabama makes major mistakes in coverage.
I believe Alabama will correct some of their defensive issues, but I can’t say the same for Tennessee’s offense.
I’m backing Alabama (I jumped on the Crimson Tide when they were +1 on Saturday) in a “get right” game. I expect Iamaleava to continue experiencing growing pains, and any hopes of a 1998-style season for Tennessee will end in Knoxville.
I’m also leaning towards the under, as I don’t think Tennessee will suddenly bounce back from scoring just 31 combined points in regulation against Florida and Arkansas to put up big numbers against Alabama.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Tennessee 17
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