The Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers both eked out close victories at home last week, leading to a clash between two 5-1 teams with fanbases that remain on edge.
While neither squad has looked dominant this season, each still controls its own destiny in the race for a College Football Playoff spot. Here’s our pick for who will emerge victorious in this Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -2 - Spread
Alabama -3 - Moneyline
Alabama -148, Tennessee +124 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Neyland Stadium | Knoxville, TN - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, sunny, three mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Alabama opened as a narrow favorite on Sunday, and the line has crept further away from the Vols during the week. The Crimson Tide has historically had the advantage over Tennessee, with the 2022 victory for Josh Heupel’s team standing out like a sore thumb in a run of modern-era defeat. Alabama holds a 59-39-7 all-time head-to-head winning record over their SEC foe.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Tennessee actually has a better spread record than Alabama this season, covering four times compared to the 3-3 record for the Crimson Tide. Kalen DeBoer’s team has failed to cover the last two games (albeit as a three-score favorite). That said, the Vols have also failed to cover in the last two outings. Saturday marks the first time in 2024 they enter the game as an underdog.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
FPM favors the Crimson Tide, but only slightly. According to the metric, Alabama has a 52.8% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about two points. This game represents one of Alabama’s toughest challenges of the year, with the only game with a lower win probability being a road game in Baton Rouge. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Tennessee: 52.8%
- vs. Missouri: 80.2%
- at LSU: 50.0%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 79.3%
- at USC: 94.1%
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Volunteers have a 47.2% chance to win the game, per FPM. This game represents Tennessee’s second-toughest challenge on the rest of the schedule. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Alabama: 47.2%
- vs. Kentucky: 81.6%
- vs. Mississippi State: 95.9%
- at Georgia: 25.4%
- vs UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 79.6%
Prediction for Alabama vs. Tennessee
Each team has a traditionally strong unit that has underperformed this season. The Crimson Tide’s defense looked nearly impenetrable in the first half against Georgia, but they’ve since allowed 63 points over their last 10 quarters.
Meanwhile, Josh Heupel’s offenses are typically among the conference’s best, but this season has been a struggle against SEC competition. After racking up over 50 points during their non-conference games, Tennessee has been held to 25 points or fewer in three straight matchups, failing to reach 20 points in regulation in the last two.
So, which unit should be a bigger concern?
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For me, the answer is Tennessee’s offense. Outside of Squirrel White and Dylan Sampson, they seem to lack explosive playmakers. Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has shown his inexperience against SEC defenses, averaging just 174 passing yards over three conference games, with only one touchdown and 10 sacks.
The other units, while capable, have their own weaknesses. Tennessee has benefited from facing three straight opponents who made quarterback changes mid-game (Oklahoma by choice, Arkansas, and Florida due to injury). Notably, Florida led 10-0 before Graham Mertz got hurt, and they only managed seven points after.
Alabama’s offensive line struggled against South Carolina’s stout front, and now they’ll face Tennessee’s front seven, which could play a pivotal role in the outcome.
If Alabama can keep Jalen Milroe protected, they have the weapons on the outside to score against Tennessee. On the flip side, I don’t see Tennessee’s offensive struggles improving unless Alabama makes significant mistakes in coverage.
I believe Alabama will address some of their defensive issues, but I’m not confident Tennessee’s offense can do the same.
I’m backing Alabama (I jumped on the Crimson Tide when they were +1 on Saturday) in a “get right” game. I expect Iamaleava to continue going through growing pains, and any hopes of a 1998-style season for Tennessee will end in Knoxville.
I’m also leaning toward the under, as I don’t see Tennessee suddenly breaking out from scoring just 31 combined points in regulation against Florida and Arkansas to put up big numbers against Alabama.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Tennessee 17
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