It’s been an unusual season for the Alabama Crimson Tide in their first year AN (After Nick), but they’re hitting their stride and remain very much in the hunt for both the College Football Playoff and the SEC Championship. Meanwhile, for the Oklahoma Sooners, pride and a bowl berth are all that’s left to play for in their debut season in what many consider the “best conference” in college football.
Now, these two programs collide in Week 13.
Who will come out on top? Our Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they close out the 2024 college football season.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Oklahoma odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -12 - Spread
Alabama -13.5 - Moneyline
Alabama -500, Oklahoma +380 - Over/Under
47 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium | Norman, OK - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
There’s not a long-running history between these two programs, and Saturday’s first encounter as SEC foes is only the sixth all-time meeting. Four of those matchups have come in the postseason, with Alabama emerging victorious from their previous clash in the 2018 Capital One Orange Bowl. Oklahoma leads 3-2-1 and won both regular season games (2002-2003).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Unsurprisingly, given the current trajectory of both programs, the Crimson Tide is a significant favorite, according to DraftKings and the CFN FPM. Alabama has won their last three and covered the spread when favored, including as a 42.5-point favorite against FCS Mercer. That said, Oklahoma covered the last time they were a double-digit underdog — against the Ole Miss Rebels.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is closely aligned with Vegas here, making the Crimson Tide 12-point favorites over the Sooners and giving it an 81.6% chance to win. The Crimson Tide will be heavy favorites in the Iron Bowl as well, and if it wins both, Kalen DeBoer will hit an incredible mark.
- at Oklahoma: 81.6%
- vs. Auburn: 93.9%
Oklahoma’s Winning Probability
Oklahoma still needs a win to make a bowl, and the Sooners will need to pull off an upset to do it, with just a road tilt at the LSU Tigers remaining next week. The odds that Oklahoma wins one of its remaining two games are just under 39%.
- vs. Alabama: 18.4%
- at LSU: 25.1%
Prediction for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Some casuals have taken uninformed shots at DeBoer and the Crimson Tide this season, but let’s be real—Alabama is back to rolling. DeBoer’s career track record speaks for itself. In Year 1 with a program, he’s lost more games (nine) than in the rest of his career combined (five). That’s dominance.
Currently, DeBoer holds the highest winning percentage of any coach with at least one year of experience at the Division I level. While the official record won’t kick in until he finishes his 10th season, as long as Alabama ends the year at 9-3 or better, that mark is his.
This might not be the biggest storyline for most fans, but it’s undeniable evidence of how effective DeBoer has been. He’s won everywhere he’s been, and now he’s delivering with the Crimson Tide.
Alabama remains a contender, and Jalen Milroe is still lurking as a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate. His performance against LSU—running wild over the Tigers’ defense in a blowout road SEC night game—reminded everyone just how dangerous he can be.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
On the other side, Oklahoma has no excuses offensively. The Sooners tried and failed to build an offensive line through the portal, and that glaring weakness has negated any benefit of their receivers getting healthy. Jackson Arnold has struggled mightily, and this team feels dangerously close to hitting “quit” mode.
It’s unfortunate because the Sooners’ defense is one of the better units in the Big 12. But with no help from the offense, they’ve been fighting an uphill battle all season. Alabama’s defense, while excellent, has been prone to giving up big plays—a vulnerability the Sooners’ offense has occasionally exploited.
That’s Oklahoma’s only real path to victory: limit Milroe and hit on a few explosive plays offensively. If they can do both, they’ll have a shot.
But I just don’t see it happening. Oklahoma’s entire focus will likely be on stopping Milroe, which will open up opportunities for Alabama in the run game and quick screens. Even if the Crimson Tide get off to a slow start, this Sooners offense hasn’t shown it can sustain drives against good defenses.
Oklahoma’s defense might keep Alabama’s somewhat one-dimensional offense in check for a while, but it won’t be enough to win outright.
Take the under and the Sooners to cover—but Alabama should still win comfortably. This game feels more about the margin than the outcome.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Oklahoma 17
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.