In the old playoff format, two losses would’ve likely knocked both Alabama and LSU out of serious postseason contention. But with the new 12-team College Football Playoff, more games have real weight.
Even with two losses each, the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers are still very much alive in the playoff race, likely controlling their own paths. That makes this matchup crucial. Here’s our breakdown of the spread and total for Saturday’s showdown between Alabama and LSU.
Alabama vs. LSU Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Alabama -3 - Moneyline
Alabama -142, LSU +120 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 7:30 ET - Location
Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This game is expected to be very close. CFN’s FPM has this as a true pick ’em, while sportsbooks have Alabama anywhere from a two to 3-point favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 58 points and the spread so close, Vegas expects a tightly contested, somewhat high-scoring contest. The implied final score is close to 30-27 in favor of the Crimson Tide.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Crimson Tide still have a slight chance to win the conference. Alabama has a 50% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making its hardest remaining game of the year a true toss-up.
- at LSU: 50%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 81.1%
- vs. Auburn: 94.3%
LSU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, LSU also has a 50% chance of beating the Crimson Tide at home. FPM still thinks the Tigers have a decent shot at making the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Alabama would really make that difficult.
- vs. Alabama: 50%
- at Florida: 89.0%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 74.9%
- vs. Oklahoma: 86.8%
Prediction for Alabama vs. LSU
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has played with confidence this season—except in two tough road matchups. In the first, the Tigers leaned on their run game to scrape by South Carolina. But against Texas A&M, the Aggies shut down the ground attack, forcing Nussmeier into the roughest half of his career.
So, which version of the Tigers’ offense will we see on Saturday?
If Nussmeier gets protection, he has a real shot against this Alabama secondary. The Crimson Tide rank dead last in the SEC in expected points added per successful pass against—which is just a fancy way of saying they’re giving up a lot of big plays, often for big yards.
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It seems like every week, Alabama’s defense has a critical breakdown that costs them points. If they didn’t shore things up over their second bye week, Nussmeier is more than capable of hitting a deep shot for a massive score.
Expect the Tigers to go for a balanced attack this week, too.
I have serious concerns about the Crimson Tide’s defense. While I respect their coaching staff and expect adjustments, I don’t see them as an elite unit. They should be better, but the improvement still feels uncertain.
The question is, can Alabama’s offense score enough to keep pace in a high-scoring game? LSU has had its share of three-and-outs and stalled drives, so if it turns into a game where every possession counts, the pressure could pile on.
I’m leaning toward LSU, especially with the home-field edge of a night game in Death Valley. This atmosphere could be a real boost for the Tigers. The big question is, can Alabama rise to that challenge?
I expect a great game, but right now, I trust Nussmeier to play a cleaner game than Milroe. In a matchup where every possession matters, a single turnover could swing it. I’m backing the underdogs in a shootout.
Prediction: LSU 38, Alabama 36
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