Under the old playoff format, two losses would have likely ended Alabama’s and LSU’s hopes for a serious postseason run. But with the new 12-team College Football Playoff, the stakes have changed—more games carry real significance.
Even with two losses, both the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers remain firmly in the playoff hunt, likely holding control over their own destinies. That makes this weekend’s clash pivotal. Here’s our analysis of the spread and total for Saturday’s showdown between these two powerhouses.
Alabama vs. LSU Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Alabama -3 - Moneyline
Alabama -142, LSU +120 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 7:30 ET - Location
Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This game is expected to be very close. CFN’s FPM has this as a true pick ’em, while sportsbooks have Alabama anywhere from a two to 3-point favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 58 points and the spread so close, Vegas expects a tightly contested, somewhat high-scoring contest. The implied final score is close to 30-27 in favor of the Crimson Tide.
Alabama’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Crimson Tide still have a slight chance to win the conference. Alabama has a 50% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making its hardest remaining game of the year a true toss-up.
- at LSU: 50%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 81.1%
- vs. Auburn: 94.3%
LSU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, LSU also has a 50% chance of beating the Crimson Tide at home. FPM still thinks the Tigers have a decent shot at making the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Alabama would really make that difficult.
- vs. Alabama: 50%
- at Florida: 89.0%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 74.9%
- vs. Oklahoma: 86.8%
Prediction for Alabama vs. LSU
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has shown flashes of confidence this season—except in two challenging road matchups. In one, the Tigers relied on their run game to scrape by South Carolina. But against Texas A&M, the Aggies bottled up the ground attack, leaving Nussmeier to endure the roughest half of his career.
So, what version of the Tigers’ offense will take the field on Saturday?
If Nussmeier gets time to throw, he has a legitimate shot to exploit this Alabama secondary. The Crimson Tide sit dead last in the SEC in expected points added per successful pass against—a fancy way of saying they’re allowing way too many explosive plays for big yardage.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
It feels like every week, Alabama’s defense has a breakdown that leads to costly points. If they haven’t cleaned that up during their second bye week, Nussmeier has the ability to connect on a deep shot that could flip the game.
Look for LSU to keep things balanced offensively this week as well.
I have real doubts about Alabama’s defense. While I respect their coaching staff and expect some adjustments, this doesn’t feel like an elite unit. They should be better, but the improvement still seems shaky at best.
The bigger question is, can Alabama’s offense keep up in what could turn into a high-scoring affair? LSU has had its own issues with three-and-outs and stalled drives, so if this game turns into one where every possession is critical, the pressure will mount.
I’m leaning toward LSU, especially with the electric home-field advantage of a night game in Death Valley. The atmosphere alone could be a game-changer for the Tigers. The question is, can Alabama handle the moment?
I expect a close, thrilling game, but right now, I trust Nussmeier to play a cleaner game than Milroe. In a matchup where every possession counts, one turnover could be the difference. I’m rolling with the underdogs in a shootout.
Prediction: LSU 38, Alabama 36
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.