The second leg of college football’s greatest triangular rivalry series takes place in Week 10, with the Air Force Falcons flying into West Point to take on the Army Black Knights. They’re two teams undergoing dramatically different seasons, but anything can happen in the race for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
Our Air Force vs. Army prediction dives into all the essential details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Air Force vs. Army Betting Preview
All Air Force vs. Army odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
- CFN FPM Spread
Army -21.5 - Spread
Army -23.5 - Moneyline
Army -2100, Air Force +110 - Over/Under
41 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Michie Stadium | West Point, NY - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, mostly sunny, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS/Paramount+
The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy has thrown Air Force and Army together 58 times since 1959, and historically, the Falcons have had the beating of their bitter rival. Despite the 38-19-1 advantage to Air Force, recent history has been more favorable for the Black Knights, who won against the odds a year ago in Denver and tasted victory in five of the last seven encounters.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Aside from the importance of the game, you can throw all historical trends out the window. These two teams are on polar opposite trajectories, and Army is set to defend their home territory with deadly vigor. Air Force hasn’t covered the spread all year long, and the Black Knights are 6-0-1 against the spread this year with an average margin of victory of 28 points.
Air Force’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Air Force has just a 5.9% chance of beating Army on Saturday. The Falcons’ campaign has been difficult, and our metric has correctly projected every game on their schedule so far.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Falcons in the 2024 season:
- at Army: 5.9%
- vs. Fresno State: 17.9%
- vs. Oregon State: 19.8%
- at Nevada: 29.7%
- at San Diego State: 27%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Air Force would end the 2024 season with a 1-11 overall record after going winless in Mountain West play. The program has never won just one game in a season, marking a new low for a team that won nine games in 2023.
Army’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Army has a 94.1% chance of beating their bitter rivals on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has favored the Black Knights in every game of their undefeated run, and the trend should continue true to form in Week 10.
The remaining win probabilities for Army in 2024 can be found below:
- vs. Air Force: 94.1%
- at North Texas: 78.1%
- vs. Notre Dame (at Yankee Stadium): 33.1%
- vs. UTSA: 88.6%
- vs. Navy (at FedEx Field): 74.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Army would end the 2024 season with an 11-1 record, with only the Notre Dame Fighting Irish standing between them and a perfect regular season. It would be the best overall record for a Black Knights team since the 1950 season.
Prediction for Air Force vs. Army
Few things in sport rival the passion, pride, and pageantry of college football. However, that is heightened when you throw together two service academies, where the on-field effort reflects the bravery and sacrifice yet to be made by the men representing Army, Air Force, and the Navy Midshipmen.
Saturday’s second leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy will pit 1-6 Air Force against 7-0 Army. Can the circumstance of rivalry help the Falcons overcome their current woes, or will Army prove to be simply too strong? Who has the edge, and where will the crucial battles unfold?
Let’s not beat around the bush here. Air Force is simply overmanned in this battle. It’s ok to admit that. The Falcons lost a substantial amount of talent from their 9-3 team of a year ago, losing substantial pieces in both trenches, NFL-caliber defensive backs, their starting quarterback, and ball carriers that combined speed and physicality to brutalize their opposition.
The results have been devastating. Aside from the 1-6 overall record, the Falcons rank 131st in the nation for scoring offense, having averaged just 15.3 points per game. Remove the 37 scored against the New Mexico Lobos, and that looks even worse. Their leading rusher, Cade Harris, has just 212 yards, and QB John Busha has thrown five picks versus just one touchdown.
Quentin Hayes has given the Falcons something of a spark when thrown into action, but none of their offensive playmakers can hold a torch to Army quarterback Bryson Daily. A Heisman Trophy contender with 26 total touchdowns, Daily has been at the forefront of the Black Knight’s success, resulting in an offense that ranks ninth in the nation with 40.4 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Army defense has allowed just 12.4 points per game. They’ve yet to face a decent offense, but that won’t change on Saturday afternoon. The Black Knights defense, led by Max DiDomenico, Andon Thomas, and Elo Modozie, should be more than a match for anything Air Force can throw (or rush) at them. Don’t expect this to be anything other than an Army win.
Prediction: Air Force 15, Army 43
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