In Week 10, college football’s most intense three-way rivalry picks back up as the Air Force Falcons head to West Point to take on the Army Black Knights. Despite each team’s season taking different turns, the battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy brings a level playing field and plenty of unpredictability.
Our Air Force vs. Army preview breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of 2024.
Air Force vs. Army Betting Preview
All Air Force vs. Army odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Army -21.5 - Spread
Army -22 - Moneyline
Army -2100, Air Force +1100 - Over/Under
41 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Michie Stadium | West Point, NY - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, mostly sunny, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS/Paramount+
The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy has thrown Air Force and Army together 58 times since 1959, and historically, the Falcons have had the beating of their bitter rival. Despite the 38-19-1 advantage to Air Force, recent history has been more favorable for the Black Knights, who won against the odds a year ago in Denver and tasted victory in five of the last seven encounters.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Aside from the importance of the game, you can throw all historical trends out the window. These two teams are on polar opposite trajectories, and Army is set to defend their home territory with deadly vigor. Air Force hasn’t covered the spread all year long, and the Black Knights are 6-0-1 against the spread this year with an average margin of victory of 28 points.
Air Force’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Air Force has just a 5.9% chance of beating Army on Saturday. The Falcons’ campaign has been difficult, and our metric has correctly projected every game on their schedule so far.
- at Army: 5.9%
- vs. Fresno State: 17.9%
- vs. Oregon State: 19.8%
- at Nevada: 29.7%
- at San Diego State: 27%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Air Force would end the 2024 season with a 1-11 overall record after going winless in Mountain West play. The program has never won just one game in a season, marking a new low for a team that won nine games in 2023.
Army’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Army has a 94.1% chance of beating their bitter rivals on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has favored the Black Knights in every game of their undefeated run, and the trend should continue true to form in Week 10.
- vs. Air Force: 94.1%
- at North Texas: 78.1%
- vs. Notre Dame (at Yankee Stadium): 33.1%
- vs. UTSA: 88.6%
- vs. Navy (at FedEx Field): 74.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Army would end the 2024 season with an 11-1 record, with only the Notre Dame Fighting Irish standing between them and a perfect regular season. It would be the best overall record for a Black Knights team since the 1950 season.
Prediction for Air Force vs. Army
Few things in sports can match the passion, pride, and pageantry of college football, and it’s on full display when two service academies meet on the field. The intensity runs deep, as the men of Army, Air Force, and Navy bring the same dedication and courage they’ll later show in service.
This Saturday, the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy series continues with a clash between the 1-6 Air Force Falcons and the undefeated, 7-0 Army Black Knights. Can the fierce tradition of this rivalry drive the Falcons to overcome their recent challenges, or is Army simply too dominant? Who has the upper hand, and where will the game’s decisive moments unfold?
Let’s get straight to it: Air Force faces an uphill battle here, and it’s fair to recognize that reality. The Falcons are reeling from significant roster losses from last year’s 9-3 team, including critical positions on the line, NFL-caliber defensive backs, their starting quarterback, and standout backs who brought a unique mix of speed and power.
The results have been tough. At 1-6, Air Force ranks near the bottom nationally in scoring offense, averaging just 15.3 points per game. Remove their 37-point showing against New Mexico, and the numbers look even grimmer. Leading rusher Cade Harris has only 212 yards, and QB John Busha has thrown five interceptions to just one touchdown.
Quentin Hayes has brought a bit of life to the Falcons’ offense, but no playmaker compares to Army’s Bryson Daily. A Heisman Trophy contender with 26 total touchdowns, Daily has driven the Black Knights to an impressive ninth in the nation, scoring 40.4 points per game.
Defensively, Army is holding teams to a mere 12.4 points per game. Though they haven’t yet faced a high-powered offense, that won’t change Saturday. Anchored by Max DiDomenico, Andon Thomas, and Elo Modozie, Army’s defense should comfortably handle whatever Air Force brings. Expect nothing short of a decisive Army win.
Prediction: Air Force 15, Army 43
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