After an impressive win over NC State in Week 4, the Clemson Tigers are beginning to look like the program of old, closing the gap at the top of the conference. However, it is the Miami Hurricanes who continue to lead the ACC predictions, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
ACC Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below, are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 ACC Championship ahead of Week 5:
- Miami Hurricanes – 52.2%
- Clemson Tigers – 22.9%
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – 4.2%
- Louisville Cardinals – 4%
- Boston College Eagles – 3.3%
- Syracuse Orange – 3%
- Pittsburgh Panthers – 2.7%
- NC State Wolfpack – 2.2%
- California Golden Bears – 1.3%
- Florida State Seminoles – 1.1%
- SMU Mustangs – 0.8%
- Virginia Cavaliers – 0.7%
- North Carolina Tar Heels – 0.4%
- Virginia Tech Hokies – 0.4%
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons – 0.3%
- Duke Blue Devils – 0.3%
- Stanford Cardinal – 0.2%
Miami Hurricanes – 52.2%
After opening the season 4-0 with comfortable wins every step of the way, Mario Cristobal’s Miami team is considered an overwhelming favorite to win the ACC. With just one currently-ranked team on their schedule, the CFN FPM gives them a 17.6% chance of winning every game remaining this season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Behind QB Cam Ward, the Hurricanes have the top-ranked overall offense in the ACC (605.0 yards per game), while a dangerous defensive unit has allowed a conference-leading 232.8 yards per game and just 10.3 points per game. No team in the ACC has more explosive passing plays (over 20 yards) than Miami. Ward has engineered 30 such plays, the next best has just 19.
Clemson Tigers – 22.9%
Don’t look now but a vintage college football season might be coming from Clemson. After struggling against the Georgia Bulldogs to open the campaign, Dabo Swinney’s team has ripped through Appalachian State and North Carolina State in ruthless fashion, putting a halt to claims of their demise and calls for a new leader at the helm of the perennial conference contender.
After scoring just three points against Georgia, they scored over 50 in the last two games. That has them creeping up the statistical leaderboards and closing on the ACC frontrunners. The win over NC State catapulted them from 9.1% to 22.9% chance in the latest ACC predictions. After climbing four spots in the AP Poll, they also have a 15.7% chance of making the CFP.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – 4.2%
A convincing loss to the Louisville Cardinals harms a Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets bandwagon that had gathered significant steam after beating Florida State in Dublin but has since registered two conference losses. They’ve also got one of the hardest remaining schedules in the country, with a 0.06% chance of winning all their remaining games.
Two of those are against out-of-conference opponents Notre Dame and Georgia, which doesn’t impact their 4.2% chance of winning the ACC. What might, is a defense that has given up over 30 points in their last two ACC outings, and an offense that struggled to move the ball against Louisville. Head coach Brent Key will need to recover the magic around the program quickly.
Louisville Cardinals – 4%
It might seem peculiar or downright wrong that Louisville has less of a chance of winning the conference in our ACC predictions than the team they just beat comfortably in Week 4. Especially when you consider that Jeff Brohm’s team is the second-highest-ranked ACC outfit in the latest AP Poll, putting them on the verge of College Football Playoff consideration.
The Cardinals face one of the toughest strength of schedule of any of the ACC championship contenders and have to face in-conference opposition in Clemson and Miami (FL) down the stretch of the season. They also have a Week 5 clash with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to overcome out-of-conference.
As a result, the CFN FPM only gives the Cardinals a 0.6% chance of winning the rest of their games, with a projected 8-4 record.
Boston College Eagles – 3.3%
If you’re looking for a long shot for the ACC title in 2024, look no further than the Boston College Eagles. After getting their season off to a winning start against Florida State, Bill O’Brien’s team is undefeated in ACC play. They also avoid Clemson and Miami (FL) down the stretch of a schedule that only features one opponent that is currently ranked by the AP Poll.
As a result, the Eagles have a greater probability of winning out than the two teams listed above them and even have a 5.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff according to the latest CFN FPM. While Thomas Castellanos is a big-play offensive threat, Boston College has leaned on a defense that ranks fourth in the ACC for several metrics — including scoring defense.
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