After a difficult offseason, the Atlantic Coast Conference has started the 2024 college football campaign in a nervy fashion, with mixed results as they look to place multiple teams in the expanded College Football Playoff.
However, one team in particular has exceeded expectations early in the year, with the Miami Hurricanes considered an overwhelming favorite to win the conference according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
ACC Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below, are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 ACC Championship:
- Miami Hurricanes – 52.9%
- Clemson Tigers – 9.1%
- Louisville Cardinals – 6.6%
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – 6.2%
- NC State Wolfpack – 5.6%
- Syracuse Orange – 3.5%
- Pittsburgh Panthers – 3.4%
- North Carolina Tar Heels – 3%
- Virginia Tech Hokies – 2.1%
- Boston College Eagles – 1.8%
- SMU Mustangs – 1.5%
- Virginia Cavaliers – 1.3%
- Cal Golden Bears – 1.3%
- Florida State Seminoles – 0.8%
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons – 0.6%
- Duke Blue Devils – 0.3%
- Stanford Cardinal – 0%
Miami Hurricanes – 52.9%
After opening the season 3-0 with comfortable wins every step of the way, Mario Cristobal’s Miami team is considered an overwhelming favorite to win the ACC. With just one currently-ranked team on their schedule, the CFN FPM gives them a 9.6% chance of winning every game remaining this season.
Behind QB Cam Ward, the Hurricanes have the top-ranked overall offense in the ACC (609.3 yards per game), while a dangerous defensive unit has allowed a conference-leading 188.7 yards per game and just 8.7 points per game. No team in the ACC has more explosive passing plays (over 20 yards) than Miami.
Clemson Tigers – 9.1%
After having a Week 3 bye, Clemson enters Week 4 without anyone really knowing if they’re good or not. Dabo Swinney’s team was embarrassed by the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1, but rebounded with a comfortable 66-20 win over a good Appalachian State side that just struggled to beat East Carolina.
The jury is still out on quarterback Cade Klubnik, and the transfer portal policy under Swinney is still under scrutiny. Nonetheless, the CFN FPM gives Clemson a 2.7% chance of winning all their remaining games and a 9.08% chance of taking home the ACC crown. Nov. 2 is a critical date for the Tigers. Speaking of…
Louisville Cardinals – 6.6%
The Louisville Cardinals face one of the toughest strength of schedule of any of the ACC championship contenders, and have to face in-conference opposition in Clemson and Miami (FL) down the stretch of the season. They also have a Week 5 clash with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to overcome out-of-conference.
As a result, the CFN FPM only gives the Cardinals a 0.6% chance of winning the rest of their games, with a projected 8-4 record.
However, they still have the third-best chance of winning the ACC (6.6%) and an 8.6% chance of reaching the playoff. Through two games, they have the best scoring offense (55.5 PPG) and defense (7.0 PPG allowed) in the conference, but tougher tests are to come.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – 6.2%
Georgia Tech enters Week 4 with a one-game head start on everybody in the ACC, having beaten Florida State in Week 0. Brent Key’s team has yet to take a bye. With one loss already on their 2024 resume and a schedule that features four currently ranked teams, they have just a 0.1% chance of winning out.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, two of those games are against out-of-conference opponents (Notre Dame and Georgia), which don’t impact their chances of winning the ACC. Meanwhile, they already have a win on their ACC record after despatching the Seminoles in Dublin and are averaging the third most yards per play on offense in the conference.
NC State Wolfpack – 5.6%
Bolstered by a middle-of-the-road strength of schedule in their conference, the CFN FPM gives the NC State Wolfpack the third-best chance of winning all their remaining games among ACC teams. The 2-1 Wolfpack have more home than road games remaining, plus one more out-of-conference clash to come against Northern Illinois.
Still, they’re only given a 0.6% chance of winning all those games and a slim chance of winning the ACC (5.6%). The offense hasn’t lived up to expectations, ranking 14th of the 17 ACC teams for scoring offense (26.0 points per game) and yards per play (5.34). An injury to starting QB Grayson McCall doesn’t help their cause.
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.