The SMU Mustangs have stormed into the ACC Championship Game in their very first season in the conference. Waiting for them? The Clemson Tigers, the ACC’s most decorated program with a record 21 league titles.
In this ACC Championship Game preview, we break down the matchup, offering essential betting insights to help you make smart, confident picks.
ACC Championship Game Betting Preview
All ACC Championship Game odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -2 - Spread
SMU -2.5 - Moneyline
SMU -148, Clemson +124 - Over/Under
56 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 7 - Location
Bank of America Stadium | Charlotte, N.C. - Predicted Weather at Kick
38 degrees, 5 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
ABC
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Tigers, as they went 1-5 against the spread in their last six games and pushed the total over just once in their last five.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Meanwhile, the Mustangs have enjoyed success in all facets, going 7-2 ATS to close out the year and cashing the over in six of those contests.
Clemson’s Winning Probability
Dabo Swinney and the Tigers are back in the ACC title match after a one-year hiatus, but it was close. Had the Miami Hurricanes handled business against the Syracuse Orange in Week 14, Clemson not only would’ve been out of the conference championship, but they likely would’ve been out of the College Football Playoff with three losses on the year.
- at SMU: 46.2%
SMU’s Winning Probability
Rhett Lashlee has yet to win a bowl game with the Mustangs, but he’s yet to post a losing season and guided the program to an ACC title berth in its debut campaign. SMU lost just one game all year despite dealing with QB concerns at the beginning of the year. Now, they’ll face Clemson for the first time ever — for a conference title, no less.
- vs. Clemson: 53.8%
Prediction for ACC Championship Game
All signs seem to favor SMU in this matchup, but a closer look reveals Clemson’s potential path to capturing their ninth ACC title—four more than any other program.
While the Tigers have the edge in experience and star-studded talent, that’s where the advantages end:
- Total defense: SMU 326.1 ypg, 28th; Clemson 357.2 ypg, 57th
- Scoring defense: SMU 19.75 ppg, 19th; Clemson 21.08 ppg, 30th
- Third-down offense: SMU 31.4%, 11th; Clemson 33.9%, 30th.
- Red-zone defense: SMU 74.4%, 16th; Clemson 78.9%, 34th
- EPA margin: SMU 12th; Clemson 22nd
- Net points per drive: SMU 15th; Clemson 18th
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That said, Clemson’s discipline sets them apart. Dabo Swinney’s squad has been flagged just 64 times for 602 yards this season, compared to SMU’s 101 penalties for 962 yards.
The Tigers also dominate in the turnover department with a +14 margin (5th nationally), while the Mustangs sit at +2, tied for 54th.
However, the schematic matchup doesn’t favor Clemson. The Tigers rely heavily on man coverage, a defensive approach that Rhett Lashlee’s offense thrives against. Whether through crossing routes, play-action, or designed QB runs, Kevin Jennings and the SMU attack are built to exploit man coverage, much like LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina did to Clemson just last week.
SMU’s offense has been on fire, scoring 30+ points in eight of their last nine games, and there’s little reason to expect otherwise here. Back SMU to win, cover, and push this game over the total with another explosive performance.
Prediction: SMU 31, Clemson 27
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.