Typically, I’ve found value in the Group of Five vs. Middling Power Four matchup, but this year’s New Mexico Bowl has a few added elements.
The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns are hurting. Can the TCU Horned Frogs make them pay? Find out in our Louisiana vs. TCU prediction.
Louisiana vs. TCU New Mexico Bowl Betting Preview
All Louisiana vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
TCU -7.5 - Spread
TCU -13.5 - Moneyline
TCU -455, Louisiana +350 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 28, 2:15 p.m. ET - Location
University Stadium | Albuquerque, MA - How To Watch
ESPN
While many teams this bowl season are affected by the transfer portal, the Ragin’ Cajuns have a case of the old-fashioned injury bug.
Starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge went down injured, so Chandler Fields stepped in before being carted off in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Wooldridge is questionable, and if he can’t go, they’ll be down to their third-stringer. Elsewhere, the Ragin’ Cajuns are missing multiple starting receivers and tight ends.
The line on this game has moved somewhat significantly. After starting at TCU -9.5, the line has moved to its current number of -13. The total has moved down as well, as it’s gone from 61.5 to 58.
Louisiana’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Ragin’ Cajuns than Vegas, making Louisiana a 7.5-point underdog. That translates to a winning probability of 28.4%.
- vs. TCU: 28.4%
TCU’s Winning Probability
TCU is relatively unaffected by the transfer portal and could get star receiver Jack Bech back from injury. CFN’s FPM gives the Frogs a 71.6% chance to win.
- vs. Louisiana: 71.6%
Prediction for Louisiana vs. TCU
At full strength, I’d pick the Ragin’ Cajuns straight up, but the injuries have mounted at a few key positions.
The quarterback group is ravaged by injury, and even if Wooldridge can go, he’s unlikely to be at his best. In addition to that, there are injuries and opt-outs at all of the skill positions, and I’m not sure where Louisiana finds its offense.
TCU’s defense, especially against the run and the deep pass, has been one of the worst in the country. Still, the Frogs are facing multiple third-string playmakers on an already thin Group of Five team.
The TCU offense hasn’t been the issue for the Frogs this season, as that unit is ranked 23rd nationally in yards per play and has scored 30 points in nine of 12 games. Recently, the defense has come along as well.
Since losing a shootout to the Baylor Bears on Nov. 2, the Frogs defense allowed 17 points per game in the final three games of the season.
Those offenses weren’t top-five units, but they weren’t poor either, and all three had their full complement of skill players.
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I, unfortunately, think this could be a blowout. Unlike some of the others you’ll see this bowl season though, this won’t be because of the transfer portal, a lack of effort, or because a team cares more about the vacation destination than the game itself.
I just don’t think Louisiana has the depth and talent needed to weather the piling injuries.
If Wooldridge is good to go, it certainly adds intrigue. The Ragin’ Cajuns will have their top two running backs and two of the five top receivers available. So, the cupboard’s not empty, but it’s starting to look bare.
I’m monitoring Wooldridge’s final status here. If he’s healthy, I think Louisiana can do enough in the passing game to open up running lanes for Bill Davis. I still wouldn’t take them to win, but I’d feel better about a Ragin’ Cajuns cover.
As it stands, though, I have to go with the available information. So, if I have to make a prediction, it’ll be the Frogs by a lot.
Prediction: TCU 34, Louisiana 16
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