The SMU Mustangs and Penn State Nittany Lions have faced off just twice in their history, with the most recent meeting over 45 years ago. In 1978, Penn State edged out a 26-21 victory, while their first matchup in 1948 ended in a 13-13 tie.
So, who takes the win this time? Our SMU vs. Penn State prediction dives into everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they battle through the opening round of the 2024 College Football Playoff.
SMU vs. Penn State College Football Playoff First Round Betting Preview
All SMU vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -7 - Spread
Penn State -8.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -310, SMU +250 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Dec. 21 - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Pa. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
TNT/Max
If you bet on SMU to cover the spread this year, you’ve made a pretty penny. The Mustangs are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10, even winning straight up in their lone game as an underdog against the Louisville Cardinals.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Nittany Lions’ 6-6 overall ATS record doesn’t look as impressive in comparison, but they are 4-1 in their last five as favorites.
Both teams have been kind to over bettors as well, with SMU cashing it in seven of its last 10 and Penn State doing so in four of its last five.
SMU’s Winning Probability
The Mustangs are fresh off a tight ACC Championship Game loss to the Clemson Tigers. While the defeat certainly stings, it was the program’s first year in the conference, which is rather remarkable. But Rhett Lashlee and Co. want more, beginning with Round 1 of the CFP.
- at Penn State: 31.2%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
James Franklin has a bit of a reputation for struggling in big games, and he couldn’t clear his name with an upset victory over the Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten title match. Can he hold off SMU as a more-than-a-touchdown favorite?
- vs. SMU: 68.8%
Prediction for SMU vs. Penn State
SMU absolutely earned their spot in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean I see them making it past the first round.
Kevin Jennings has done a solid job stepping in for Preston Stone, but Drew Allar brings more experience and has faced tougher competition. Allar’s decision-making is elite—he protects the ball and avoids sacks in situations where most college QBs would crumble.
What’s more, Allar has actually outperformed Jennings on the ground despite not being featured in designed runs, whereas the SMU QB thrives in those situations. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, the challenges go far beyond the quarterback position.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Consider this: SMU’s offensive success rate ranks 48th nationally, while Penn State’s defense is 19th in that same category. SMU sits 28th in offensive net points per drive, but Penn State’s defense is ninth in defensive net points per drive. The numbers just don’t favor the Mustangs.
Across the board, these teams are fairly close, but SMU doesn’t hold a meaningful advantage anywhere. Penn State even comes out ahead in key areas like penalty yards per game (45 vs. 79), turnover margin (+5 vs. 0), and time of possession (30:40 vs. 28:26).
If there’s any reason to hesitate on Penn State, it’s James Franklin’s history of underperforming when the spotlight is brightest. But in my view, that’s a storyline for later in the postseason, not this round.
Prediction: Penn State 34, SMU 24
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