Following the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s final rankings, the bracket is officially set. What is the Penn State Nittany Lions’ path to the national championship?
Penn State College Football Playoff First Round Prediction vs. No. 11 SMU
In a battle between two conference champion losers, the Nittany Lions will begin their 2024 CFP journey against the SMU Mustangs. They should be heavy favorites at home, with the CFN FPM giving them a nearly 70% win probability.
- Win Probability vs. SMU: 68.8%
- CFN Spread vs. SMU: Penn State -7
Penn State College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Projection vs. No. 3 Boise State
Penn State quietly has one of the easier paths to the natty, as with a win over SMU, it would play the Boise State Broncos. The UNLV Rebels held them to just 21 points in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, and they lost to the only Power Four team on their schedule — albeit the Oregon Ducks by only three points (37-34).
- Win Probability vs. Boise State: 70.3%
- CFN Spread vs. Boise State: Penn State -7
Penn State College Football Playoff Semifinal Projection vs. No. 10 Indiana, No. 7 Notre Dame, or No. 2 Georgia
Then it’s on to the semifinal. The Nittany Lions are likely hoping for the Indiana Hoosiers to survive, with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Georgia Bulldogs providing much more difficult matchups.
- Win Probability vs. Indiana: 50.4%
- Win Probability vs. Notre Dame: 50.0%
- Win Probability vs. Georgia: 42.6%
- CFN Spread vs. Indiana: Penn State -1
- CFN Spread vs. Notre Dame: Pick ’em
- CFN Spread vs. Georgia: Georgia -3
Penn State College Football Playoff National Championship Projection vs. the Field
Once in the national championship, the Nittany Lions have six potential opponents. The easiest draw, according to the FPM? The Clemson Tigers. The toughest? Either the Ohio State Buckeyes or the Oregon Ducks, both of whom they’ve lost to already this season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
- Win Probability vs. No. 5 Texas: 44.4%
- Win Probability vs. No. 12 Clemson: 61.1%
- Win Probability vs. No. 4 Arizona State: 58.9%
- Win Probability vs. No. 8 Ohio State: 41.1%
- Win Probability vs. No. 9 Tennessee: 49.2%
- Win Probability vs. No. 1 Oregon: 43.9%
- CFN Spread vs. No. 5 Texas: Texas -3
- CFN Spread vs. No. 12 Clemson: Penn State -4
- CFN Spread vs. No. 4 Arizona State: Penn State -3
- CFN Spread vs. No. 8 Ohio State: Ohio State -3
- CFN Spread vs. No. 9 Tennessee: Tennessee -1
- CFN Spread vs. No. 1 Oregon: Oregon -5.5
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