The SMU Mustangs valiantly came from behind and nearly forced overtime against the Clemson Tigers had a 56-yard field goal not been good. For SMU (and the ACC), the fear now is that a loss in the ACC Championship Game might mean SMU’s playoff chances are dead on arrival, just 12 hours before the committee is supposed to unveil their rankings.
SMU’s Playoff Chances Next to Nill
We know what you’re thinking: You’re going to devalue the conference championship games if you penalize the teams for losing.
While that may be true, it should be noted that the committee has it nowhere in their bylaws that they are to consider what fans think or feel about teams in their selections.
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And while that is nowhere on their M.O., the fact does remain: If the committee leaves out SMU for losing to Clemson, should teams now not play in their conference championship game if they’re on the bubble?
We can go around and around on this one, so let’s get to what SMU has to see from the committee in order to make it in.
To do that, we have to set the stage with the way the rankings were on the last iteration:
- Oregon (Won Big Ten vs. Penn State)
- Texas (loss SEC vs. Georgia)
- Penn State (loss Big Ten vs. Penn State)
- Notre Dame
- Georgia (won SEC vs. Texas)
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- SMU (lost ACC vs. Clemson)
- Indiana
- Boise State (won Mountain West)
- Alabama
- Miami-FL
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Arizona State (won Big 12 vs. Iowa State)
- Iowa State (lost Big 12 vs. Arizona State)
- Clemson (won ACC vs. SMU)
So this shapes up in the following fashion:
No. 1 seed Oregon
No. 2 seed Georgia
No. 3 seed Boise State
No. 4 seed Arizona State
The highest-ranked conference champions are set to receive first-round byes and will take on their winners of specific first-round games. That’s what we do know.
What we do not know, is how the committee will rank the final seven at-large teams, if we consider Clemson is sneaking in only by winning the ACC and likely to get the No. 12 seed.
It’s safe to assume the home teams in the opening round as seed Nos. 5-8 will host opening-round games. Those teams are likely to comprise of: Notre Dame, Texas, Ohio State, and Penn State, in some order.
How the committee ranks Texas vs. Notre Dame is as interesting as how the committee will rank Ohio State vs. Penn State.
But it pales in comparison to how the committee will rank the last on-the-bubble teams.
Tennessee is in, as is Indiana, those are near locks at this point. SMU, who was ranked No. 8, lost their conference championship game to the No. 17-ranked team. As such, that team is likely set to move up in the rankings, but it won’t move down the Crimson Tide wherever they put Clemson because Alabama is higher ranked than South Carolina, a team that just beat Clemson a week ago.
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The transient property doesn’t quite apply to the college football playoff selection committee, but let’s try it on for size:
South Carolina beat Clemson and were ranked No. 14 …
Clemson beat SMU who was ranked No. 8 …
South Carolina didn’t move past Alabama after beating Clemson …
Why would SMU remain above Alabama after losing to Clemson …
It’s a tough question to ask and arguably the one that will keep the committee thinking for the longest time. It’s also set to be the one that may have the biggest ramifications of all in the future.
As of right now, our latest projections have SMU out, and Alabama in.
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