The SMU Mustangs are one win away from an ACC title and a spot in the College Football Playoff in their debut season in the conference. Are they also one loss away from a CFP berth? Let’s find out.
SMU’s ACC Championship Odds
The College Football Network FPM gives the Mustangs a 53.8% chance of defeating the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game. Of course, a win books their ticket to the CFP with, presumably, a top-four seeding. But what about a loss?
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has repeatedly stated they will not “punish” teams that lose in conference championship games. CFP Chair Warde Manuel went further on ESPN’s rankings show:
“If you take, for example, Tennessee is ahead of [ACC title game participant] SMU, Indiana is behind SMU; Tennessee will not drop below Indiana at any point. Neither team is playing. But SMU could move up, depending on how we evaluate the game. They could stay where they are, or they could move down depending on the outcome of the game. But Tennessee and Indiana, in this example, would never flip.
“Indiana would never move ahead of Tennessee, and Tennessee would never drop below Indiana because we’ve already evaluated them. There’s not another data point because they’re not playing in the championship games. So we don’t have anything else to add to the evaluation of those teams, so we can’t move them above or below each other.”
SMU is 11-1 on the year, with the lone loss coming at the hands of the 10-2 BYU Cougars. Another defeat shouldn’t boot them from the playoff, but it could.
SMU’s College Football Playoff Road Map
The Athletic recently looked at the committee’s decisions following conference championships, and the trends are clear.
Of the 47 teams that fell short, the average decline was two spots, with nearly half staying put or dropping just one place in the rankings. Additionally, when higher-ranked teams lose to lower-ranked ones, their ranking drop is tied to the margin of defeat.
Narrow losses — like the Iowa Hawkeyes’ three-point defeat in 2015 or the TCU Horned Frogs’ overtime thriller in 2022 — resulted in minimal movement, but blowout losses often led to steeper drops, averaging 4-5 spots.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
For SMU, this history signals a precarious scenario entering the ACC title game. Facing a Clemson team ranked nine spots lower (No. 8 vs. No. 17), the Mustangs risk a significant rankings fall with a substantial loss.
Precedent shows that higher-ranked teams losing by three touchdowns or more tend to drop dramatically — potentially out of CFP contention. SMU’s margin of defeat could dictate their postseason fate.
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