The Marshall Thundering Herd and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns have only met twice, with Louisiana winning in 2021 (36-21) and 2022 (23-13). With the Sun Belt Championship Game on the line, can Marshall finally get over the hump?
Our Sun Belt Championship Game prediction dives into this compelling matchup, offering crucial betting insights to guide your picks.
Sun Belt Championship Game Betting Preview
All Sun Belt Championship Game odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisiana -3 - Spread
Louisiana -5.5 - Moneyline
Louisiana -198, Marshall +164 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 7 - Location
Cajun Field | Lafayette, La. - Predicted Weather at Kick
57 degrees, 7 mph winds, cloudy - How To Watch
ESPN
Marshall has been a hot betting pick this season, going 5-1 against the spread to end the year while cashing the over in four of those games.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Louisiana has posted the same exact stat line in that timeframe, owning a 5-1 ATS record with the over hitting in four of its final six contests.
Marshall’s Winning Probability
The Thundering Herd haven’t posted a losing season since 2016 and are one win away from their first 10-win campaign since 2015. However, Louisiana won’t make it easy, with the FPM giving Marshall a sub-45% chance of donning the Sun Belt crown.
- at Louisiana: 42.6%
Louisiana’s Winning Probability
Louisiana clinched its seventh consecutive bowl berth this season, a testament to its sustained success. Even more notable is the Cajuns’ return to the Sun Belt title game after dominating the conference from 2018 to 2021, capped by a championship victory over Appalachian State in their final appearance of that run.
- vs. Marshall: 57.4%
Prediction for Sun Belt Championship Game
Marshall has generated 28+ points in six straight games. Louisiana has scored 30+ in nine of 12 contests this season. Yeah, the 56.5-point total is too low.
Points will be scored in this one, but who will come out on top? While neither defense is all that impressive, it may not matter with how the Cajuns’ offense has performed this season:
- Yards per game: Louisiana 445.7, 18th; Marshall 380.5, 75th
- Points per game: Louisiana 35.6, 15th; Marshall 31.9, 39th
- Third-down conversion rate: Louisiana 46.4%, 18th; Marshall 39.1%, 81st
- Red-zone conversion rate: Louisiana 94.7%, 2nd; Marshall 80.4%, 99th
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Clearly, Louisiana has the far superior unit, and that’s because of QB Ben Woolridge. He’s completed 68.3% of his passes for 2,392 yards, 17 TDs, and just five INTs. On top of keeping the ball out of harm’s way, Woolridge rarely allows pressures to turn into sacks and routinely gets throws out on time.
His Marshall counterpart, Braylon Braxton, has played well, but he’s had some positive turnover luck and isn’t as accurate at all levels of the field. We haven’t even discussed Louisiana’s three-headed monster in the backfield (Bill Davis, Zylan Perry, and Dre’lyn Washington), who’s averaging 6.3 yards per carry.
Take Woolridge and Co. to best Marshall on their own, keeping their foot on the peddle and pushing the total over.
Prediction: Louisiana 34, Marshall 27
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