The SMU Mustangs find themselves in the ACC Championship Game in their conference debut. Their opponent? The Clemson Tigers, who own the most league titles with 21.
In our ACC Championship Game preview, we dive deep into the matchup, providing key betting insights to help you make informed and confident picks.
ACC Championship Game Betting Preview
All ACC Championship Game odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -2 - Spread
SMU -2.5 - Moneyline
SMU -135, Clemson +114 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 7 - Location
Bank of America Stadium | Charlotte, N.C. - Predicted Weather at Kick
38 degrees, 5 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
ABC
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Tigers, as they went 1-5 against the spread in their last six games and pushed the total over just once in their last five.
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Meanwhile, the Mustangs have enjoyed success in all facets, going 7-2 ATS to close out the year and cashing the over in six of those contests.
Clemson’s Winning Probability
Dabo Swinney and the Tigers are back in the ACC title match after a one-year hiatus, but it was close. Had the Miami Hurricanes handled business against the Syracuse Orange in Week 14, Clemson not only would’ve been out of the conference championship, but they likely would’ve been out of the College Football Playoff with three losses on the year.
- at SMU: 46.2%
SMU’s Winning Probability
Rhett Lashlee has yet to win a bowl game with the Mustangs, but he’s yet to post a losing season and guided the program to an ACC title berth in its debut campaign. SMU lost just one game all year despite dealing with QB concerns at the beginning of the year. Now, they’ll face Clemson for the first time ever — for a conference title, no less.
- vs. Clemson: 53.8%
Prediction for ACC Championship Game
Most signs point to SMU defeating Clemson in this one, but a deeper dive highlights the Tigers’ path to their ninth ACC title (four more than any other team).
In terms of experience and star-rating talent, the Tigers have the edge, but that’s about where it stops.
- Total defense: SMU 326.1 ypg, 28th; Clemson 357.2 ypg, 57th
- Scoring defense: SMU 19.75 ppg, 19th; Clemson 21.08 ppg, 30th
- Third-down offense: SMU 31.4%, 11th; Clemson 33.9%, 30th.
- Red-zone defense: SMU 74.4%, 16th; Clemson 78.9%, 34th
- EPA margin: SMU 12th; Clemson 22nd
- Net points per drive: SMU 15th; Clemson 18th
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That said, Swinney’s squad is the far more disciplined group, committing just 64 penalties (602 yards) to SMU’s 101 (962). Additionally, their turnover margin is +14, the fifth-highest in the nation, while the Mustangs’ +2 is tied at 54th.
The schematics aren’t in their favor, though. Clemson deploys man coverage at one of the highest rates in the country, and Lashlee’s offense feasts against man. Whether with crossing routes, play-action, or QB runs, Kevin Jennings and Co. should be able to move the chains similarly to LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina just last week.
The Mustangs have scored 30+ in eight of their last nine, and I expect them to do so once again. Back SMU to win, cover, and score enough to help cash the over.
Prediction: SMU 31, Clemson 27
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