The ACC Championship Game will be fought between the long-running conference powerhouse Clemson Tigers and the newcomer SMU Mustangs, with a place in the College Football Playoff on the line for both programs.
Who will come out on top? Our Clemson vs. SMU prediction examines the latest odds, win probabilities, and forecasts the winner of the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson vs. SMU Betting Preview
All Clemson vs. SMU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -2 - Spread
SMU -2.5 - Moneyline
SMU -135, Clemson +114 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Bank of America Stadium | Charlotte, NC - Predicted Weather at Kick
31 degrees, clear, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
After avoiding each other in the regular season, Saturday will be the first-ever clash between Clemson and SMU. What better time to meet than the ACC Championship Game?! After an undefeated conference campaign and just one defeat all season, the Mustangs are understandably favored by the oddsmakers, especially given the Tigers’ defeat in their regular season finale.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Clemson has been an underdog just once this year, and they lost that game in spectacular fashion, failing to cover the spread by three touchdowns. They’re also 5-7 ATS this season. Meanwhile, SMU is 8-4 ATS. If the line swings towards the Tigers in the week of the game, the Mustangs should be considered a lock to cover, having overcome underdog spread lines 100% of the time.
Clemson’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Clemson has a 46.2% chance of beating SMU in the ACC Championship Game. Our metric projected the opening-day loss to the Georgia Bulldogs but had them as a favorite in losses to the Louisville Cardinals and South Carolina Gamecocks.
- vs. SMU: 46.2%
SMUs Winning Probability
Conversely, SMU has a 53.8% chance of beating Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Our metric has favored the Mustangs in every game of the season. While the CFN FPM incorrectly projected a win over the BYU Cougars, it was closer to the three-point loss than the 12-point line offered by some oddsmakers.
- vs. Clemson: 53.8%
Prediction for Clemson vs. SMU
The ACC Championship Game is arguably one of the more intriguing of the weekend’s slate of games. The matchup was only finalized when the Miami Hurricanes (who had long been considered a conference favorite) were defeated on the final Saturday of the regular season, gifting Clemson a spot against an SMU team that clinched its berth much earlier.
Adding to the stakes is a place in the College Football Playoff. Clemson has to win to seal a berth, while SMU doesn’t want to leave its fate in the hands of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. Who has the edge? Where will this game be won, and who will put their name into the history books as the first champion of the 17-team ACC era?
Come rain, come shine, come criticism, Clemson always comes to the fore. Under Dabo Swinney, the team has been an ACC powerhouse despite constant outside cynicism about how the program is put together. They may have eschewed the transfer portal, but between roster retention and development, the Tigers are well-positioned to compete with most teams in the country.
Offensive development has been key to them reaching the ACC Championship Game. Clemson’s offense has been at its most devastating since 2020, averaging 35.7 points per game. Cade Klubnik has quietly put together a 3,000+ yard passing season while adding value with his legs, bolstering a run game led by the talented Phil Mafah (who notched his first 1,000-yard season).
You expect Clemson to be defensively superior to most teams they face, and in 2024, they’ve allowed less than 21 points in seven of their 12 games. Linebacker Barrett Carter has been their defensive leader, but Sammy Brown and T.J. Parker have weighed in with double-digit tackles for loss. Second-year standout Parker has been a dynamic pass rusher with 10 sacks.
However, there has been a defensive weakness that SMU can exploit on Saturday in the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers have one of the worst run defenses in the conference, allowing 4.58 yards per carry. Only Syracuse and the Florida State Seminoles have allowed more.
The Tigers were decimated by South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers in the regular season finale, giving up 166 yards and two touchdowns while making the Gamecocks standout look like a Louisville-era Lamar Jackson. While not quite the same caliber of athlete, SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is more than capable of defeating a team with his legs if unleashed.
Furthermore, SMU boasts one of the most underrated running backs in the country in Brashard Smith. The fourth-year back has averaged 6.0 yards per carry on his way to 1,157 yards and 14 touchdowns, and has been practically unstoppable. Expect Smith to lead the way as the Mustangs trample the Tigers, while showcasing their own defensive fortitude in a championship performance worthy of a place in the College Football Playoff.
Prediction: Clemson 24, SMU 31
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