The computers helped ensure college football fans got the Mountain West Conference Football Championship Game matchup they deserved as the UNLV Rebels won a tie-breaker against the Colorado State Rams to set up a rematch with the Boise State Broncos.
But why would the second meeting be any different than the first? In this UNLV vs. Boise State prediction, we explore the spread, total, and moneyline in a game that could determine the Group of Five entrants into the College Football Playoff.
UNLV vs. Boise State Betting Preview
All UNLV vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Boise State -4 - Moneyline
Boise State -175, UNLV +145 - Over/Under
58.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Dec. 6, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho - Predicted Weather at Kick
38 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
I don’t think anyone is complaining about getting a rematch of both the 2023 Mountain West championship and Week 9 of this season as these are clearly the two best teams in the Mountain West, and perhaps all of the Group of Five. This line has already dropped, as Boise State opened as a five-point favorite.
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Boise State is now a four-point favorite, but College Football Network’s model has this as a pick ’em, ever so slightly favoring the Broncos. The high total implies another game like the 29-24 game the teams played just under two months ago.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Rebels, giving them a winning probability of 49.2%. A win on Friday could make the Rebels the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion, which would make them the 12 seed after fading from much of the public eye after starting the year 4-0.
Boise State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Broncos are slight favorites, with a winning probability of 50.8%. They’ll want to defend their home field, and a win could potentially give them a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
Prediction for UNLV vs. Boise State
The cat-and-mouse game between these two coaching staffs on Oct. 25 was beautiful.
Shockingly, Ashton Jeanty struggled somewhat to find running room, as the UNLV defense held the Heisman candidate to just 3.9 yards per carry.
However, Maddux Madsen was excellent on the red-zone read calls, running for 58 yards on just three carries. The Broncos followed the method the Syracuse Orange used to beat the Rebels by holding the ball and keeping the Rebels’ offense off the field, going 4-of-4 on fourth downs.
Boise State had 34 minutes of possession, helping the Broncos outgain the Rebels by 25 yards, despite UNLV’s offense averaging more than a yard per play more than them.
Most teams haven’t been able to move the ball on the Broncos this season like the Rebels did in their first matchup, and that was with a combined 63 yards from receivers Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus.
The question is: can the Broncos do it again?
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I’m fascinated by the potential adjustments these coaching staffs make before the teams’ second meeting. Spencer Danielson and his staff will want to figure out how to get Jeanty going after the Rebels hold him in check.
Similarly, Barry Odom wants to figure out how to get White and De Jesus more involved while bottling up Jeanty and protecting against Madsen.
How they each do that will be fascinating. We’ll finally see Jeanty used a bit more in the passing game while UNLV again tries to disrupt the timing by bringing edge pressure.
In predicting this game, I keep coming back to that yards-per-play disparity. UNLV may have been the better team when these teams faced off in October, even if the scoreline didn’t show it.
In a second meeting, I like the Rebels to catch a couple of breaks; and in a rematch, I like the Rebels’ ability to be multiple on offense. Brennan Marion and staff could theoretically run a drastically different game plan with ease, while Boise State might struggle with Jeanty as the primary threat.
Even if Boise State is a one-trick pony on offense, Jeanty is an incredible horse to have. That being said, I really like the Rebels and think they’re the team poised to pull off the upset.
This is the best game of the weekend, so enjoy what could be a wildly entertaining game. Give me the Rebels in a surprisingly low-scoring chess match.
Prediction: UNLV 27, Boise State 24
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