The BYU Cougars can only control what they can control when it comes to their postseason hopes. In front of them was a game against the Houston Cougars, which they must win to continue to stay alive.
Off to the side, however, is the game that means the most in this situation: Kansas State vs. Iowa State. And here’s how all of this affects BYU’s playoff chances.
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Chances
Entering Week 14, BYU had a 21.40% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship Game. This was, of course, before any of the action in Week 14 took place.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Now, with Colorado winning against Oklahoma State on Friday, and Arizona State clinching their spot in the Big 12 title game with a win over Arizona, the Cougars’ only hope at this point is simple:
- Win vs. Houston
- Have Kansas State beat Iowa State
In doing so, Iowa State would be eliminated and BYU would own the tiebreaker over Colorado. The Cougars would punch their ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game against Arizona State.
The Big 12 tiebreaking scenarios between BYU and Colorado are simple to understand at this rate. It starts at head-to-head competition, but these two teams did not play one another. Colorado also didn’t play BYU, Arizona State, or Iowa State, and the tiebreakers go to ‘records based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.’
In this instance, here is how BYU and Colorado stack up in terms of common opponents:
BYU’s opponents:
Kansas State (W)
Baylor (W)
Arizona (W)
Oklahoma State (W)
UCF (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas (L)
Arizona State (L)
Houston (W *in this scenario)
Colorado’s opponents:
Baylor (W)
UCF (W)
Kansas State (L)
Arizona (W)
Cincinnati (W)
Utah (W)
Kansas (L)
Oklahoma State (W)
The two teams have played Baylor, UCF, Kansas State, Arizona, Utah, Kansas, and Oklahoma State as similar opponents. In those games, the combined records are:
- BYU: 6-1
- Colorado: 5-2
The tiebreaker is settled right then and there, BYU is granted the Big 12 Championship Game over Colorado if Iowa State were to lose to Kansas State.
UPDATE: This was sadly not to be for BYU fans. Despite being alive for a tied four-way finish for first place in the Big 12, with Iowa State winning against Kansas State in Week 14, BYU was eliminated from the Big 12 Championship Game.
Now, how Colorado remains alive is somewhat of a mystery, but the conference has stated if BYU were to lose to Houston, it would be Arizona State vs. Colorado in the Big 12 title game.
If BYU were to hang on to beat Houston, then it would be Arizona State vs. Iowa State for the Big 12 Championship.
Unfortunately, neither of those scenarios unfold the way of the Cougars as they are apparently out of contention with Iowa State’s victory over Kansas State.
BYU’s Playoff Projections Rely On Winning Big 12
If the Cougars were to win against Houston they are now unlikely to make the Big 12 Championship Game, something that they would have needed in order to get to the College Football Playoffs. BYU would have had to win the Big 12 to earn a spot in the playoffs.
That’s because, at this rate, it’s looking more and more apparent that the winner of the Big 12 is the only conference team that will earn a spot in the playoffs, given the mess of three-loss SEC teams sitting on the bubble.
MORE: Sign up for College Football Network’s exclusive free newsletter for more scenarios and even more content
And it seems more and more likely at this point that the Big 12 team could earn the 12th seed in the playoffs and have to travel on the road to the No. 5 seed in the opening round.
Still, for BYU, a playoff berth is a playoff berth, but they needed Kansas State to defeat Iowa State in order for that to happen.
Now, just beat Houston and punch your ticket to what looks like it would be the second affiliated bowl for the Big 12.
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.