College football realignment and the expansion of the College Football Playoff have created a Wild, Wild West where every week anything is possible, and every result has a significant result on projections and predictions for bowl season and beyond.
How did it impact the postseason outlook? In our latest College Football Playoff Predictions, we use the previous CFP rankings and the Week 14 results to guide a projection of how the 2024-2024 College Football Playoff 12-team bracket could look.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils
- No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide
- No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers
Pure pandemonium. That’s what the first two windows of Week 14 have left us with. Losses for Ohio State and the Miami Hurricanes have made a mockery of all previous College Football Playoff projections. The Hurricanes, long-fancied to lift the ACC crown, won’t make the title game after their loss to the Syracuse Orange and will likely be left on the outside looking in.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Ohio State’s loss will drop them down the order, but how far will they fall? Miami’s defeat is important for the Buckeyes, but their two losses could see them slide behind Indiana while remaining ahead of the three-loss Crimson Tide. How the committee views that gaggle of SEC teams with three losses is going to be fascinating this coming Tuesday.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 5 Penn State
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 7 Georgia
The four highest-ranked conference champions, according to our latest College Football Playoff predictions, will be Boise State (Mountain West), SMU (ACC), Oregon (Big Ten), and Texas (SEC), with those four teams securing first-round byes. According to multiple reports, those conferences will automatically place teams into contract-specific and location-related bowls, as listed above.
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Home-field advantage is going to be key in the first round, and that is well evidenced in our College Football Playoff predictions by every home team being a projected winner. From here, Texas, Oregon, Penn State, and Notre Dame are likely to be favored. The closest quarterfinals would be the Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl, with the Fighting Irish a narrow favorite over SMU.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Penn State
The results of our quarterfinal predictions see Texas overcome Georgia (potentially in the final game of a trilogy) to set up a semifinal date with Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. The Fighting Irish’s ground game and strong defense would be too much for Miami in the Peach Bowl, but could they compete with the Longhorns’ ferocious defense in the semifinal?
Meanwhile, Oregon and Penn State could face off in the Big Ten Championship Game if the Nittany Lions don’t slip up against the Maryland Terrapins in Week 14. Even in that eventuality, there’s a path for the two to meet again in the Cotton Bowl. Two strong ground games and two solid defenses should make for an exciting game that may be separated by Dillon Gabriel’s prowess.
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Texas
This has been a popular projected national title game matchup for much of the season. Here’s what we wrote about the game in our previous College Football Playoff predictions:
“Is Texas back? It’s become a cliche and joke in recent years, but after falling short of the title game a year ago, our bowl projections place the Longhorns in the College Football National Championship Game. Rather than Quinn Ewers and the offense powering their success, it’s the defense that should carry the program to their first title game of the playoff era.
But, can they succeed when they get there? According to the CFN FPM, Oregon has a 61.1% chance of beating the Longhorns. Dillon Gabriel has proven efficient in operating the Ducks’ offense since replacing Bo Nix, they have a dangerous ground game, and Dan Lanning’s team likely has a narrow advantage in the trenches despite both teams being loaded with superstars.”
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