The 2024 edition of the Old Oaken Bucket rivalry between the Purdue Boilermakers and the Indiana Hoosiers has College Football Playoff implications.
The Boilermakers have nothing to play for, having lost 10 straight games. However, they would love to get one over their local rivals and spoil any chance of the Hoosiers heading to the postseason. Our Purdue vs. Indiana prediction gives the latest odds, lines, and picks for the critical Big Ten matchup.
Purdue vs. Indiana Betting Preview
All Purdue vs. Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Indiana -27 - Spread
Indiana -29 - Moneyline
Purdue +1700, Indiana -4500 - Over/Under
57 - Game time
Saturday, Nov. 30, 7:00 p.m. ET - Location
Indiana University Memorial Stadium | Bloomington, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
30 degrees, snow showers, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
FS1
Unsurprisingly, Purdue is a massive underdog on the road in Bloomington this weekend. The Boilermakers haven’t won a game this season since a 49-0 victory over Indiana State in Week 1. Besides running Illinois and Northwestern to overtime, Ryan Walters’ team has struggled to stay in games with the offense sputtering and the defense leaking.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
It is a step back for the Purdue program, which has won the last three meetings between the state rivals and leads the all-time series 77-42-6 over Indiana. However, 2024 is the year of the Hoosier, who are looking to win 11 games during the regular season for the first time in school history under Curt Cignetti.
The revival of football in Bloomington under the leadership of Cignetti is palpable and reflected in the vast point spreads. The bookmakers make the Hoosiers 29-point favorites while the CFN FPM metric has Indiana favored by 27.
Purdue Winning Probability
Purdue is staring a 1-11 season in the face. The CFN FPM gives the Boilermakers only a 2.8% chance of ending their winless streak in Bloomington on Saturday. It would be the first time since 2013 that they have won just one game in a season.
At Indiana: 2.8%
Indiana Winning Probability
Indiana wants to keep its playoff hopes alive when they contest the rivalry game against Purdue. With a 10-1 record, the CFN FPM thinks the game is already as good as won for the Hoosiers, who have a 97.2% chance of winning the Old Oaken Bucket.
Vs. Purdue: 97.2%
Prediction for Purdue vs. Indiana
Indiana is looking to bounce back to its winning ways after suffering a defeat in Columbus, Ohio, to Ohio State. The loss means Indiana won’t head to Indianapolis to contest the Big Ten Football Championship Game without some outside help. However, with the Buckeyes as the only current loss on their résumé, they could still be playoff-bound in their first season under Cignetti.
First, they must take care of business against Purdue as Indiana is looking to recapture the Old Oaken Bucket for the first time since 2019. They should have enough.
Purdue has had limited success throwing the ball in 2024 with Hudson Card at QB, ranked 130th in points per game (14) and points per play (0.236). Comparatively, Indiana ranked sixth in points per game (37.7) and points per play (0.568). The Hoosiers’ defense has also been an elite unit, limiting opponents on passing and running downs.
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It is difficult to see how Purdue can stop Kurtis Rourke from making plays while defending the run. The Hoosiers play brutal, violent but methodical football and will suffocate any chances Purdue could get.
With playoff implications, Indiana will need to win but also put on a show for its home fans plus the on-looking playoff committee, resigning its in-state rivals to a heavy defeat and potentially securing a high-end postseason spot.
Prediction: Indiana 45, Purdue 6
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