The Ole Miss Rebels suffered a crushing defeat to rival Florida Gators in Week 13, knocking them out of the SEC Championship Game picture and dinging their College Football Playoff aspirations at the same time.
Can the Rebels still make the playoffs or is it too far gone?
Ole Miss Playoff Odds
According to the College Football Playoff Meter power by our Playoff Predictor, the Rebels have just a 4.67% chance to make the playoffs. That comes after the latest College Football Playoff Rankings saw the Rebels land at No. 14.
Though it’s a 12-team playoff, it should be noted that the rankings do not account for the best 12 teams that make the playoffs, and one of the teams ranked lower than Ole Miss will be making the playoffs due to winning the Big 12. No Big 12 team was ranked higher than Ole Miss in the latest rankings, yet one of those schools will make the playoffs.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That just means, in order to feel safe for the playoffs, Ole Miss would need to rank at least No. 11 in the next iteration ahead of the conference championship games.
So, can they do it? And what needs to happen in front of them?
Ahead of Ole Miss are the following programs:
- No. 13 — Alabama
- No. 12 — Clemson
- No. 11 — Boise State
- No. 10 — Indiana
- No. 9 — SMU
- No. 8 — Tennessee
- No. 7 — Georgia
- No. 6 — Miami
- No. 5 — Notre Dame
So let’s get to who could actually drop a game for the Rebels’ sake, and maybe why it’s not so cut and dry for some of them.
First thing up would be looking directly at Alabama and whether or not they could lose the Iron Bowl vs. Auburn. Right now, our simulation model gives Alabama a 91.3% chance of winning against the Tigers, so hope for chaos there, Rebel fans.
Next up would be Clemson, who sits at No. 12. But, the Tigers still have South Carolina on the horizon and the Gamecocks rank No. 15, right behind Ole Miss. You have to expect the winner of that game to get their ticket punched to at least move up to the next-in-line playoff spot.
So, for the Rebels, here’s the best case scenario when it comes to Clemson, South Carolina, and then de facto, Miami and SMU.
If Clemson beats South Carolina, the Gamecocks are eliminated for sure. If Miami loses to Syracuse in Week 14, it would be Clemson who plays SMU in the ACC Championship Game. The loss from Miami would likely knock them all the way out of playoff contention and the ACC Championship Game.
And then, depending on the result of SMU vs. Clemson (in this scenario), the loser would also be eliminated. That scenario knocks out two opponents in front of Ole Miss and likely pushes the Rebels in.
Most likely, however, it’s Miami that defeats Syracuse and then plays SMU in the ACC Championship Game. Ole Miss fans would root for Miami in that game to knock the lower-ranked Mustangs down past the Rebels.
So, who else can get knocked out ahead of the Rebels?
- Indiana (97.2% winning probability) vs. Purdue
- Tennessee (82.1%) vs. Vanderbilt
- Georgia (87.2%) vs. Georgia Tech
- Notre Dame (75.1%) vs. USC
It’s highly likely that those four teams win their Week 14 matchups, securing their places in the playoffs.
Of those teams, only Georgia is playing in their title game, and it will be very interesting to see if Georgia loses the SEC Championship Game, if they stay ranked higher than Ole Miss, specifically. What can’t happen, however, is Texas losing to Texas A&M because the Aggies are below the Rebels and would certainly climb if they beat Texas.
The Longhorns wouldn’t fall below the Rebels in that situation either, meaning the Longhorns were guaranteed a playoff spot.
To sum this all up, the Rebels are hoping for chaos just to move up a handful of spots in the playoff rankings.
Ole Miss needs any combination of the following:
- Clemson win over SC, Miami loss to Syracuse; Clemson loss to SMU (+2)
- Miami win over Syracuse, win over SMU; South Carolina win over Clemson (+1)
- Alabama loss to Auburn (+1)
- Georgia loss to Texas (+1)
None of this is guaranteed, and ultimately, it is just asking for chaos. With how this season has gone, though, isn’t chaos just par for the course?
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