The combatants for the MAC Championship Game will be decided on the very last day of their regular season, as the Ohio Bobcats host the Ball State Cardinals in a win-and-in game on Black Friday. Tim Albin’s team will look to book their ticket to Detroit, while the Cardinals just want to end a bad season with a win.
Who will prevail? Our Ball State vs. Ohio prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Ball State vs. Ohio Betting Preview
All Ball State vs. Ohio odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio -11 - Spread
Ohio -15.5 - Moneyline
Ohio -670, Ball State +470 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Peden Stadium | Athens, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
36 degrees, cold with a couple of snow flurries, 9 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Friday afternoon marks the 28th edition of this Ball State vs. Ohio matchup, with the Cardinals holding a 15-12 head-to-head advantage ahead of the game. However, recent history is very much with the Bobcats, with four consecutive wins stretching back to 2015. Ohio won the last time they met (2022) and is a significant favorite heading into their regular season finale.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
That’s been a comfortable position for Albin’s team this season, which hasn’t lost as a moneyline favorite all season. Additionally, they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four, winning by at least 17 points in that span. Although Ball State is 8-2-1 covering the points line, only two of Ohio’s 11 games this season have gone over the 52.5-point line offered by DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
Ball State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Ball State has just a 20.1% chance of beating Ohio on Friday afternoon. Our metric projected a 2-10 season for the Cardinals, and if the game goes the way predicted, they’ll end the year with a 3-9 record, outstripping CFN FPM by one win. The program overcame expectations against the Northern Illinois Huskies, winning as a 4.5-point ‘dog.
Ohio’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio has a 79.9% chance of beating Ball State on Friday afternoon. Our metric projected a 9-3 season for the Bobcats, and if they live up to expectations in Week 14, that’s what they’ll end the season with. CFN FPM made Ohio a favorite to beat the Toledo Rockets and South Alabama Jaguars when they were a spread underdog by the major oddsmakers.
Prediction for Ball State vs. Ohio
Ohio is in the enviable position of controlling its own destiny in Week 14. If it beats Ball State, it will be heading to Detroit for the MAC Championship Game, a remarkable achievement given its offseason losses. Ohio is a significant favorite and should be able to get the win on Friday afternoon, but it’s still in the equation with a loss—it just gets really, really interesting.
Can Ball State complicate things for the Bobcats? Over the last three weeks, they’ve lost to the other three teams in play for the MAC Championship Game and have won just three games all year. That said, they’ve played spoiler once this year (against Northern Illinois) so could they do it again in the season finale?
The Cardinals have to find a way to play better defense in Week 14 than they’ve managed in the previous 11 games. Over the past four seasons they’ve been a top half of the MAC team for scoring defense, but this year, only the Kent State Golden Flashes have allowed more points per game. Ball State has allowed 40.6 points per game against the top MAC teams.
Particularly troubling for the Cardinals, with the Ohio game in mind, has been their run defense. Ball State has allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.05) in the conference this year while shipping 22 rushing touchdowns. They’ve also given up the most passing yards per attempt (8.7) and nine more passing touchdowns (33) than any other team in the MAC.
Long story short, buy all the Parker Navarro stock you can get your hands on, whether as player prop bets or as a DFS asset. The Ohio quarterback has rushed for 758 yards and 11 touchdowns this fall, with 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns in each of his last two outings. Either RB Anthony Tyus III or WR Coleman Owen should surpass 1,000 yards in this game.
Ball State quarterback Kadin Semonza leads the MAC in touchdowns and completions and has a dangerous outlet in tight end Tanner Koziol. However, they face a Bobcats defense that has allowed just 18.5 points per game and snagged nine interceptions. Semonza leads the conference in interceptions thrown, and trying to keep up with Ohio may be his downfall.
Prediction: Ball State 17, Ohio 30
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