Few teams had as good a week last week as the Tennessee Volunteers, and they had a buy game against the UTEP Miners. It wasn’t what they did, but what their chief College Football Playoff competition did instead, as losses by the Alabam Crimson Tide, Texas A&M Aggies, Ole Miss Rebels, and Indiana Hoosiers helped their playoff case.
Now, the Volunteers simply need to avoid a loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores to ensure they’ll play a first-round playoff game, perhaps at home. Does Diego Pavia have one more bit of magic in him? Find out our thoughts in this Tennesee vs. Vanderbilt prediction.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -12 - Spread
Tennessee -10.5 - Moneyline
Tennessee -395, Vanderbilt +310 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 29, Noon ET - Location
FirstBank Stadium | Nashville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
39 degrees, partly cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The only thing standing between Tennessee and a spot in the College Football Playoff is Vanderbilt. But if the Commodores can pull off the upset, the Volunteers will tumble out of playoff contention and fall just short once again.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total shows the strength of these defenses and the spread, while still double-digits, is much closer than what we’ve seen in previous seasons. The spread of Tennessee -10.5 and total of 48.5 points implies a final score close to 30-19, in favor of the Volunteers.
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is close to the Vegas line, making the Volunteers 12-point favorites. That translates to a winning percentage of 82.1% which should be close to their College Football Playoff chances as this is as close to a “win and in” situation as you’ll find this season.
- at Vanderbilt: 82.1%
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
Vanderbilt has a 17.9% chance to win, per FPM. A win would turn a good season into a winning season for the Commodores, who are looking to close out the season with a win after losing two-straight.
- vs. Tennessee: 17.9%
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
It’s not that the shine has worn off the Commodores, but more that the schedule has been difficult down the stretch. The Commodores lost one-score games to the LSU Tigers on the road and the Texas Longhorns and really struggled to get anything going against the South Carolina Gamecocks’ pass rush to go from 5-2 to 6-5.’
Tennessee is a team that has never looked dominant at any point in conference play, but has grinded out wins against an easier SEC schedule. In fact, the Volunteers are just 2-2 against conference opponents with three or more SEC wins.
While that hurts them in tie-breakers, it has helped them stay afloat in the College Football Playoff race.
The Volunteers have done it with a power-rushing, defense-first approach this season and have gone as Dylan Sampson has gone. That is to say, mostly great.
But they’ve struggled a bit with teams that can run the ball and stop the run, two things the Commodores love to do.
I’m intrigued specifically by how the Volunteers approach Vanderbilt’s two-high shell.
The Commodores defense thrives by eliminating the explosive play and forcing opponents to drive the length of the field. That has led to some lopsided time of possession numbers in their opponents’ favor, but it’s the way the Commodores want to play.
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I’m specifically interested because the Tennessee offense has tried to hit big plays, but mostly survives off of slow, methodical drives. Can the Commodores cause enough havoc to put the Volunteers off schedule?
If not, the Volunteers will control the tempo, clock, and game, much like LSU did last week against the Commodores.
But if the Commodores can get Tennessee behind the sticks, Tennessee might not be able hit the chunk plays it needs.
I ultimately like the Volunteers here, given what’s at stake. But don’t be surprised if youi look up and see a one-score game in the second half. The Commodores will try to minimize possessions to allow a few Diego Pavia magic tricks to have their full effect.
But, the Volunteers are too deep and the defensive front is too talented. I don’t love the spread, but do think Commodores can do enough defensively to cover.
Prediction: Tennessee 23, Vanderbilt 14
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