The Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. USC Trojans rivalry is one of the best in college football — they meet for the the 95th time in Week 14. The Irish hold a 49-37-5 all-time lead, including a 48-20 trouncing of the Trojans just last year.
Our Notre Dame vs. USC prediction dives into this compelling showdown, offering crucial betting insights to help you make confident picks.
Notre Dame vs. USC Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -9 - Spread
Notre Dame -7.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -265, USC +215 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 30 - Location
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Los Angeles - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, 2 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
CBS
Both of these teams are riding hot streaks against the spread, with Notre Dame 7-0 ATS overall and USC 5-0 ATS at home.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As for the total, Fighting Irish games have favored the over, with it hitting in five of their past seven. Meanwhile, Trojans games have gone over three times before cashing under in the last three.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
The Fighting Irish have won 10+ games in seven of the last eight seasons. Yet, they want more in 2024. Marcus Freeman’s squad entered Week 13 as the No. 6 team in the College Football Playoff Committee’s rankings, and they should move up with the new release on Tuesday.
- at USC: 75.1%
USC’s Winning Probability
The Trojans secured bowl eligibility with a win over their crosstown rivals, the UCLA Bruins, last week, but it’s been the “worst” season in the Lincoln Riley era. Year 1 saw USC go 11-3 and earn a Cotton Bowl berth, but the decline began the following season, resulting in an 8-5 campaign.
- vs. Notre Dame: 24.9%
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. USC
There is no need to bury the lede here — Notre Dame is winning; the question is by how much. The offense is averaging 40.1 points per game and has scored 49+ in five games. On the flip side, USC is on its second QB and has scored over 30 just three times this year. But let’s dive in a little more.
The Irish have lived on the ground, rushing at the 41st-highest rate (55.18%) while averaging the 11th-most yards per game (221.8). That’s not great for a USC defense that ranks 107th in early down EPA and 63rd in defensive rush success rate.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Trojans offense, meanwhile, passes at the sixth-highest clip (60.32%) and draws the No. 1 defense in dropback success rate and No. 2 in EPA per dropback. “At least Woody Marks averages 5.7 yards per carry, then.” About that … ND allows just 3.5 yards per attempt, is No. 8 in third-down conversion rate allowed (29.7%), and is No. 5 in red-zone rate (70.8%).
Even when you throw in some wild rivalry shenanigans, there are just too few avenues to success for USC. Take the Irish to embarrass Riley and Co. once again as they close out the regular season and prepare for the CFP.
Prediction: Notre Dame 45, USC 20
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