Without QB Blake Horvath, the Navy Midshipmen flopped 35-0 against the Tulane Green Wave. Meanwhile, the East Carolina Pirates are riding a four-game win streak into the season finale. Will the Midshipmen earn their 10th win in 13 games against ECU in Week 14?
Our Navy vs. East Carolina prediction breaks down this intriguing matchup, providing key betting insights to help shape your picks.
Navy vs. East Carolina Betting Preview
All Navy vs. East Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Navy -2 - Spread
Navy -1 - Moneyline
Navy -115, East Carolina -105 - Over/Under
56 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Friday, Nov. 29 - Location
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium | Greenville, N.C. - Predicted Weather at Kick
51 degrees, 9 mph winds, mostly sunny - How To Watch
ESPN
Although the Midshipmen are only 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games, they are on an 8-0 ATS run against ECU. The Pirates won’t go down without a fight, though, owning a 4-1 ATS record in their past five outings.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As far as the total, the over looks like the play, with it cashing in seven of Navy’s last 10 and five of ECU’s last six. Yet, the under has hit in four of the five previous Midshipmen-Pirates matchups.
Navy’s Winning Probability
The Midshipmen are out of the conference race, but the season isn’t over. In just his second season, head coach Brian Newberry has Navy en route to their first bowl game since 2019.
- at East Carolina: 52.8%
- vs. Army: 34.3%
East Carolina’s Winning Probability
Since 2014, the Pirates have only gone bowling once — they are about to make it twice. What makes the 2024 campaign all the more impressive is the fact that head coach Mike Houston was fired after a 3-4 start. Longtime DC/LBs coach Blake Harrell stepped into the interim role, but after the recent 4-0 run, ECU brass has decided to promote him to full-time head coach.
- vs. Navy: 47.2%
Prediction for Navy vs. East Carolina
Horvath is one of the toughest players in the country, but the injuries came to a head last week, with back spasms pulling him out of the game. With their star off the field, the Midshipmen scored zero points and generated just 113 yards of total offense.
If he’s out once again, it should be all East Carolina in this one. However, let’s operate under the assumption that Horvath will give it his all.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Without lockdown CB Shavon Revel Jr., the Pirates have fallen all the way down to 109th in EPA per dropback and 71st in net points per drive. Of course, that doesn’t matter as much against a service academy program, where running games rule.
Luckily for ECU, that’s where the strength lies. The Pirates are 12th in defensive success rate against the run and should force quite a few third and fourth-down scenarios against the Midshipmen, where they rank 89th in success rate. QB Katin Houser has also been a massive upgrade over Jeff Garcia and should be able to move the chains with RB Rahjai Harris alongside him.
Take the Pirates to continue their streak and the under to hit once again.
Prediction: East Carolina 27, Navy 21
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