When the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners broke the internet by kicking off the major college football conference realignment a few years ago, it was for this game. That’s not an exaggeration, as Texas, specifically, saw the benefit of the Texas A&M Aggies’ move to the SEC and wanted to get back into the same conference as its former rival.
Now, a rivalry is renewed for the first time since the 2011 season, just before Texas A&M left the Big 12. This game has been years in the making, and now it’s here. So, who wins? The stakes are high, and these teams hate each other. Find out which way we lean in this Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction.
Texas vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -3 - Spread
Texas -5.5 - Moneyline
Texas -225, Texas A&M +185 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 30, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
57 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
While this game isn’t a true College Football Playoff play-in game anymore (Texas A&M is on the outside looking, well, outside as an at-large bid), it’s still packed with intrigue. The Aggies and Longhorns played every year from 1915 to 2011 but haven’t played since, making this a huge game. There’s the added element of Texas’ addition to the SEC that looms large as well.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Aggies are 5.5-point underdogs at home, and with a total of just 48.5, Vegas expects a tight game. With the winner heading to the SEC Championship, the stakes are enormously high. That implies a final score close to 27-21, in favor of the Longhorns.
Texas’ Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Longhorns, favoring them by about three points. That translates to a winning probability of 57.4%. While the Longhorns are likely in the College Football Playoff, I would not rule out the committee dropping them substantially if they lose by a large margin or lose again in the SEC Championship Game.
- at Texas A&M: 57.4%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Aggies are slight underdogs, with a winning probability of 42.6%. They’ll want to defend their home field, and due to crazy tie-breaking scenarios, the Aggies can make the SEC Championship with a win.
- vs. Texas: 42.6%
Prediction for Texas vs. Texas A&M
I’m extremely interested in this game.
While SEC media and fans have clamored about the schedules of teams like the Penn State Nittany Lions, Indiana Hoosiers, and any team in the ACC or Big 12, Texas’ schedule is just as weak.
In fact, if favorites win next week, the Longhorns will enter their game with wins over just two teams with winning records: the Colorado State Rams and Florida Gators (who started a walk-on at quarterback).
That’s no wins against top 25 teams and a double-digit home loss to the only ranked team the Longhorns played.
They’re a good team, but are they a great team?
We’ll find out on Saturday.
The Longhorns have breezed through their schedule partly because no team, aside from the Georgia Bulldogs, has been able to apply pressure. When the Bulldogs pressured Quinn Ewers (and subsequently Arch Manning, when Steve Sarkisian incorrectly surmised that Ewers was the problem), the Texas offense lacked answers.
In that game, Texas allowed pressure on 25 of 58 dropbacks, giving up seven sacks and throwing for just 87 yards on such dropbacks.
Now, the Longhorns face a defensive front that has been credited with 194 pressures this season. Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart are future draft picks at the edge rushing positions, and I’m curious to see if the Longhorns’ offense can operate when pressured.
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Offensively, I think the Aggies can do enough in the running game to maintain possession and shorten the game. Can the Texas offense avoid negative plays and score consistently if limited in possession?
Marcel Reed has taken care of the football this season and adds an element of the quarterback running game that Texas hasn’t seen this season.
If it gets into a shootout, I’m not sure the Aggies can be consistent enough to keep up, but if the defense can cause havoc, I really like Texas A&M at home.
I like the matchups and think the Aggies have an advantage on the interior while on offense and along the entire front when on defense. Assuming they can continue to avoid negative plays offensively, I think their style of play will frustrate the Longhorns.
Texas A&M is well-coached and won’t roll over after a loss to the Auburn Tigers. Accordingly, I like the Aggies at home to cover and upset their rivals outright.
They’ll need to avoid the big, momentum-swinging plays on both sides of the ball, as I think the Aggies are the better team on a down-to-down basis. If Texas wins, it will be on the back of turnovers and long pass plays. If the Aggies avoid those, they’ll be celebrating in College Station. A win makes the path to the College Football Playoff crystal clear
Take the Aggies and lean under, as Elko will try to squeeze the life out of this game. Don’t be surprised if he does just that, frustrating Texas fans, players, and coaches in a low-scoring loss.
Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Texas 21
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