The Texas A&M Aggies were dealt a massive blow to the SEC Championship Game chances on Saturday when they lost to the Auburn Tigers. However, it’s their College Football Playoff hopes that took the biggest hit following the defeat.
They’re not out of it, but it’s win-or-go-home now in Week 14.
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Chances
After Week 13, the Aggies now have just an 8.60% chance at making and winning the SEC Championship Game. That’s because they have arguably the toughest route, playing Texas, to get there, even if they have the easiest way in through tiebreakers.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Aggies have to win against Texas and then find their way through the SEC tiebreakers in the process to make the Championship Game.
How Can Texas A&M Make the SEC Championship Game?
A&M now has one chance to make the SEC Championship Game, beating Texas and weaving their way through the SEC Championship tiebreakers.
Here’s how the tiebreakers are set up:
- Head-to-head
- Record against all common SEC opponents
- Record against highest-placed common SEC opponents
- Cumulative SEC winning percentage of all SEC opponents
With Alabama and Ole Miss losing in Week 13, the tiebreakers could only be with four teams now. However, Tennessee’s inclusion allows for the first tiebreaker to go away because SEC tiebreaker logic states that a perfect round-robin must be obtained in order for head-to-head records to apply.
Tennesee only played Georgia, therefore not allowing any of tiebreaker No. 1’s scenarios to come to fruition. Next up would be tiebreaker No. 2 among these four teams.
Their record against all common SEC opponents is perfectly 2-0 each:
- Mississippi State (all four won)
- Florida (all four won)
That then pushes tiebreaker No. 3 out of the way as well, given they all beat the same teams.
So, we get to the cumulative SEC winning percentage of all SEC opponents.
Texas:
Mississippi State (0-7)
Oklahoma (2-5)
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-4)
Florida (4-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Kentucky (1-7)
Texas A&M (5-2)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 24-33 (42.1%)
A&M:
Florida (4-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Missouri (4-3)
Mississippi State (0-7)
LSU (4-3)
South Carolina (5-3)
Auburn (2-5)
Texas (6-1)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 28-30 (48.3%)
Georgia:
Kentucky (1-7)
Alabama (4-3)
Auburn (2-5)
Mississippi State (0-7)
Texas (6-1)
Florida (4-4)
Ole Miss (4-3)
Tennessee (5-2)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 26-32 (44.8%)
Tennessee:
Oklahoma (2-5)
Arkansas (3-4)
Florida (4-4)
Alabama (4-3)
Kentucky (1-7)
Mississippi State (0-7)
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-4)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-36 (38.9%)
As it stands following Week 13, Texas A&M would win tiebreaker No. 4 and Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee would return to the top of the tiebreaking procedures. With Tennessee not playing Texas this year, you can skip back down to record against common opponents, only this time, there are more now that A&M has been removed.
The common opponents between Tennessee, Texas, and Georgia are:
- Mississippi State (all three won)
- Florida (all three won)
- Kentucky (all three won)
Just like before, you cannot pluck a winner out of this grouping nor out of tiebreaker No. 3, so you go back to No. 4, or the total cumulative winning percentage among SEC opponents.
Georgia would make the SEC Championship Game against Texas A&M in this scenario.
Latest Texas A&M Playoff Probability Following Week 13
The Aggies entered the week with a 17.10% chance to make the playoffs based on our simulation model. That number has now only been pushed up to 17.47%, just above their chance of winning the SEC Championship, as it appears that is how they’ll have to get there.
A&M will have to beat Texas to make the championship and the playoffs happen at the same time.
Aggies’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Aggies, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- vs. Texas: 41.1%
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.