Under the prime-time lights of their fourth Big 12 road game, the Cincinnati Bearcats face the Kansas State Wildcats for the first time in nearly three decades. What once seemed certain — a bowl berth — now feels like a distant hope.
At 5-2 just weeks ago, Cincinnati appeared destined for postseason play. However, three consecutive losses in the volatile Big 12 have left Scott Satterfield’s team reeling. The Wildcats, already bowl-bound, prepare to welcome the Bearcats to Manhattan, Kan., with a strong 7-3 record, including a solid 5-3 mark in Big 12 play.
We explore the results of this high-stakes matchup in our Cincinnati vs. Kansas State prediction for Week 13’s Big 12 action.
Cincinnati vs. Kansas State Betting Preview
All Cincinnati vs. Kansas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -9 - Spread
Kansas State -8 - Moneyline
Cincinnati +255, Kansas State -275 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 8:00 p.m. ET - Location
Bill Snyder Family Stadium | Manhattan, Kan. - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, mostly cloudy, 9 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
Kansas State opened as a 7.5-point favorite, immediately jumped to -8.5, and has sat on that number ever since. The total hasn’t moved off of 52.5 since the opening. There hasn’t been much action on this one, but with a later kickoff on Saturday, game-day action may begin to move the line before kickoff.
Cincinnati’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Bearcats have a 24.9% chance of defeating the Wildcats in Manhattan on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If the win probabilities hold, Cincinnati would finish its 2024 campaign at 5-7, shockingly missing a bowl game after sitting at 5-3 with four games left to play. 5-7 would be an improvement in Year 2 under Satterfield for the Bearcats, but it would still be a bit disappointing following the promising start.
- at Kansas State: 24.9%
- vs TCU: 38.9%
Kansas State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Kansas State has a 75.1% chance of defeating Cincinnati on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Wildcats would finish 2024 at 8-4. If the Wildcats could pick up a second consecutive bowl win, they would equal their mark of 9-4 from a season ago. That would give head coach Chris Klieman his third consecutive season with nine or more wins.
- vs. Cincinnati: 75.1%
- at Iowa State: 42.6%
Prediction for Cincinnati vs. Iowa State
Under the Kansas sky, two teams searching for footing will collide on Saturday. For the Bearcats, a season that once promised hope has unraveled into a desperate bid to halt a three-game skid and keep bowl dreams alive.
Their offense ranks 48th nationally in total production and 69th in scoring, balancing a respectable ground game (44th) with a passing attack ranked 57th. Yet, red-zone struggles (78th) and inconsistent defensive performances (66th overall, 51st in scoring) have compounded their woes.
On the other sideline, Kansas State, reeling from back-to-back losses, is eager to steady the ship. Once in the top 25, the Wildcats now lean on their eighth-ranked rushing attack to spark an offense ranked 40th overall and 51st in scoring. However, turnovers have plagued them, coughing up the ball five times in their last two games.
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The Wildcats’ defensive strength against the run — allowing just 101 yards per game, ninth-best in the nation — poses a critical challenge for Cincinnati, a team that thrives on the ground. When the Bearcats fail to run, their passing game struggles to fill the void, as seen in last week’s dismal showing against Iowa State.
This matchup feels poised for Kansas State to rebound. If the Wildcats protect the ball and lean into their rushing strength, they should wear down a Cincinnati team running out of answers. Expect Kansas State to regain its footing and emerge victorious.
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Cincinnati 20
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