The Texas A&M Aggies and Auburn Tigers have locked heads 12 times since the former joined the latter in the SEC in 2011. The record over that span? 6-6. The Aggies defeated the Tigers 27-10 in College Station, Texas, last year. Can they produce a repeat performance in Jordan-Hare Stadium?
Our Texas A&M vs. Auburn prediction breaks down this matchup with key betting insights to guide your picks.
Texas A&M vs. Auburn Betting Preview
All Texas A&M vs Auburn odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -13.5 - Spread
Texas A&M -2.5 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -130, Auburn +110 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Nov. 19 - Location
Jordan-Hare Stadium | Auburn, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
46 degrees, 3 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
Although the Tigers’ 4-6 record is less than impressive, they have at least gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games. They’ve also been able to generate some points, pushing the total over in four of their last seven at home.
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Texas A&M has been the inverse record-wise, sitting at 8-2 straight up but just 1-4 ATS in the past five outings. However, the program has also leaned toward the over, hitting it in three of five contests.
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
The Aggies are two games away from a spot in the SEC Championship Game — but it won’t be easy. First, they have to defeat the Tigers on the road. Then, they’ll need to vanquish their in-state rival, the Texas Longhorns, in the season finale. We’ve broken down the conference scenarios so you don’t have to in Week 13.
- at Auburn: 83.5%
- vs. Texas: 41.1%
Auburn’s Winning Probability
At 1-5 in league play, Auburn is far from competing for a title, but bowl eligibility is still within reach … mathematically. In reality, the Tigers would have to upset Texas A&M and the Alabama Crimson Tide on the road, which the FPM gives a whopping 6.1% chance of happening.
- vs. Texas A&M: 16.5%
- at Alabama: 6.1%
Prediction for Texas A&M vs Auburn
Redshirt freshman Marcel Reed has been a revelation for the Aggies, especially with the expectations that were placed on Conner Weigman entering the year. The first-year starter routinely targets past the sticks (11.7 average depth of target) and rarely allows pressures to turn into sacks.
Yet, outside of the latter metric, Auburn’s veteran signal-caller, Payton Thorne, has outplayed Reed so far this year. But Reed makes up for it with his legs, racking up 375 yards and six TDs. Whether on designed runs or scrambles, he has the athleticism to make defenders miss and turn upfield for serious yardage.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Reed will need all his tools to put up points on a defense averaging 2.3 sacks per game (t-46th) and ranking 30th in early down EPA. The loss of star RB Le’Veon Moss for the season has stung, but Amari Daniels (5.6 ypc) is more than serviceable alongside Reed in the backfield.
However, the Aggies’ real edge comes on the other side of the ball. The Tigers are sixth in rush success rate but just 61st in dropback success rate.
Texas A&M is top 20 in both defensive marks. If Jarquez Hunter can’t get going on the ground — and Hugh Freeze abandons his workhorse, as he’s done early and often — Thorne isn’t throwing Auburn back into the game.
Take the Aggies to win straight up and easily cover the less-than-a-field-goal spread with a lean toward the under.
Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Auburn 17
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