The Missouri Tigers arrive in Starkville with a 7-3 record, ranked 23rd in the nation, but still nursing the sting of a narrow 34-30 loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks last week. The Tigers have shown flashes of brilliance this season, yet their journey through the SEC has been anything but smooth, sitting at 3-3 in conference play.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs, meanwhile, are in the midst of a rebuilding year. At 2-8 overall and winless in the SEC, the program is searching for answers. Their latest outing was a 33-14 defeat at the hands of Tennessee, a result that underscored their ongoing struggles. Does our Missouri vs. Mississippi State prediction hold the answers the Bulldogs are looking for?
Missouri vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -13.5 - Spread
Missouri -7.5 - Moneyline
Missouri -280, Mississippi State +240 - Over/Under
57 points - Game time
4:15 p.m. ET - Location
Davis Wade Stadium | Starkville, MS - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, mostly cloudy, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
This line opened with the Tigers as -5.5 point favorites, but that number has climbed to 7.5. The spread has stayed between those two numbers and likely won’t climb much higher before kick on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total opened at 56.5 and has climbed to 57.5 by a full point, but it has settled at 57 for now. This is likely to see more action and will continue to move before Saturday’s kickoff.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Tigers have an 83.5% chance of defeating the Bulldogs on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Missouri will finish with a 9-3 record and a 5-3 SEC record. With those two wins and a bowl game win, Missouri would finish with double-digit wins for the second time in the Eli Drinkwitz era.
- at Mississippi State: 83.5%
- vs. Arkansas: 61.1%
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Mississippi State has a 16.5% chance of defeating Missouri on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Bulldogs would finish 2024 with a record of 2-10. This would be the worst finish for a Mississippi State football team since 2003, when the Bulldogs finished 2-10 in Jackie Sherril’s final season at the helm.
- vs. Missouri: 16.5%
- at Ole Miss: 2.8%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Mississippi State
Brady Cook continues to steer the Missouri offense with precision, amassing 1,812 passing yards and eight touchdowns. On the ground, Nate Noel powers through with 684 yards and three scores on 122 carries, while Marcus Carroll adds another layer of physicality with 427 yards and seven touchdowns.
Theo Wease Jr. leads the receiving corps with 637 yards and three scores, complemented by Luther Burden III’s 574 yards and five touchdowns.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
Mississippi State returns to Starkville after a challenging stretch, managing just two wins in 10 games. The Bulldogs are coming off a tough loss to Tennessee, where their defense surrendered 452 yards. On offense, they stumbled, posting only 271 total yards and turning the ball over twice.
Missouri’s struggles offensively in recent weeks have been offset by a resilient defense, which has held opponents under 60% in completions—a benchmark for success. The Tigers’ lone loss in such scenarios came against Oklahoma, which needed a near-miracle comeback.
Mississippi State, completing 59% of its passes, will need to defy its recent performances through the air to keep this competitive. Expect the Bulldogs to throw everything at Missouri, but the Tigers will rely on their ground game, running the ball at least 35-40 times and controlling the pace of play.
With a steady, methodical approach, Missouri grinds out a hard-fought win, pulling away late.
Prediction: Missouri 36, Mississippi State 23
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