The Colorado Buffaloes hold a 42-23-3 all-time series advantage over the Kansas Jayhawks, but the two haven’t met since their epic 52-45 clash in 2010. The Jayhawks may only be 4-6 on the year, but they are in peak form heading into the Week 13 contest with an 8-2 Colorado squad that’s atop the conference standings.
Our Colorado vs. Kansas preview dives into this compelling matchup, offering key betting insights to guide your picks.
Colorado vs. Kansas Betting Preview
All Colorado vs. Kansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Colorado -7.5 - Spread
Colorado -2.5 - Moneyline
Colorado -135, Kansas +114 - Over/Under
59.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 23 - Location
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City, Mo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
45 degrees, 6 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
Fox
Kansas’ overall record isn’t all that impressive, but the program is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games. Colorado is also red-hot, going 8-0 ATS since the first week of September.
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With a 59.5-point total, this matchup promises plenty of fireworks. The over has cashed in five of the Buffaloes’ last seven games and six of the Jayhawks’ past seven.
Colorado’s Winning Probability
The Buffs control their own destiny toward the Big 12 Championship — win out, and you’re in; lose one, and you’ll need some help. Luckily, they play two teams toward the bottom of the conference, including the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who have yet to defeat a league opponent this year.
- at Kansas: 73.0%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 89.9%
Kansas’ Winning Probability
Despite the 1-5 start to the season, the Jayhawks still have a shot at bowl eligibility — albeit a small one. To go bowling for the third straight year, Kansas needs to upset both Colorado and the Baylor Bears — queue the “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” clip from Dumb and Dumber.
- vs. Colorado: 27.0%
- at Baylor: 34.3%
Prediction for Colorado vs. Kansas
Lance Leipold’s program has turned things around as of late — just in time to play spoiler to Colorado’s epic season. Behind QB Jalon Daniels, who looks fully recovered from the back injury that sidelined him last year, the offense ranks 19th in both EPA per play and success rate.
The Buffaloes’ resurgence has been fueled by a defense that has undergone a massive overhaul under DC Robert Livingston. The unit was a disaster last year, allowing 34.8 points per game, but it’s slashed that number to 22.7 this season.
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The analytics support the revival as well, with Colorado ranking 25th in EPA per play and 28th in success rate. They’ve also limited opponents to just 314 total yards per game over their last four outings.
The Jayhawks’ methodical offense, which ranks 107th in plays per minute and is predicated on the ground game, faces a tough test against a Colorado defense that ranks 15th in rush success rate.
While Kansas excels at grinding out efficient drives, it struggles to generate explosive plays (55th in explosiveness), which could limit its ability to capitalize on Colorado’s one defensive weakness — big-play prevention (94th in explosiveness allowed).
Offensively, Colorado leans on the elite duo of QB Shedeur Sanders and two-way superstar Travis Hunter, but the Buffs’ overall production has been closer to average than dominant. They rank 42nd in EPA per play and 50th in explosiveness, with only two games surpassing 400 total yards in their last five outings.
Kansas’ defense isn’t a juggernaut, but corners Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson could help slow Colorado’s vaunted passing attack, especially with their downhill physicality against a screen-heavy scheme.
This matchup features a strength-on-strength battle between Kansas’ efficient offense and Colorado’s resurgent defense. With both teams excelling against the spread, the outcome could hinge on which side breaks first: Kansas’ rushing attack or Colorado’s ability to stifle it.
In the end, I’ll take Sanders and Hunter to keep their Heisman-worthy pace in a lower-scoring affair than they’ve become accustomed to in recent outings.
Prediction: Colorado 31, Kansas 24
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