In a season where the Mid-American Conference is still wide open, few matchups carry as much weight as Tuesday night’s showdown between the 5-4 Western Michigan Broncos and the 5-4 Bowling Green Falcons. Who will emerge victorious?
Our Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green prediction covers it all—from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Betting Preview
All Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Bowling Green -3 - Spread
Bowling Green -10.5 - Moneyline
Bowling Green -375, Western Michigan +295 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Doyt L. Perry Stadium | Bowling Green, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
33 degrees, clear to partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Tuesday night marks the 58th meeting between Western Michigan and Bowling Green, with the Falcons holding the edge in the all-time series. While the Broncos have taken four of the last five games in Bowling Green, the Falcons have won the last two matchups and lead the rivalry with a 34-20-3 record. Heading into the 2024 showdown, Bowling Green is the betting favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The CFN FPM spread is a touch tighter than the opening DraftKings line, but both agree the Falcons are poised to notch their 35th win in this series. That said, Bowling Green hasn’t inspired much confidence when favored this season, posting a 1-5 ATS record in such situations. Western Michigan hasn’t been much better as an underdog, but I’m leaning toward the Broncos to keep this one competitive.
Western Michigan’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Western Michigan has a 42.6% chance of taking down Bowling Green on Tuesday night. The good news for Broncos fans? Our metric hasn’t always nailed their chances—just last week, it predicted a loss to Northern Illinois by a similar margin, and Western Michigan proved us wrong.
Here’s a look at Western Michigan’s remaining win probabilities for the 2024 season.
- at Bowling Green: 42.6%
- at Central Michigan: 66.9%
- vs. Eastern Michigan: 71.6%
If these win probabilities hold, the Broncos would finish the year with a 7-5 record, including a strong 6-2 showing in MAC play—their best conference performance since 2016. However, a loss to Bowling Green likely puts a damper on their title game hopes in what has been a chaotic season of MACtion.
Bowling Green’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, Bowling Green enters Tuesday night with a 57.4% chance of defeating Western Michigan. Our metric has been spot-on for the Falcons’ last three games, including their upset win over the Toledo Rockets, where they defied the oddsmakers.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Falcons in the 2024 season:
- vs. Western Michigan: 57.4%
- at Ball State: 71.6%
- vs. Miami (OH): 52.8%
If these projections hold, the Falcons would close out the season at 8-4 overall, with an impressive 7-1 conference record. Victories over Western Michigan and Miami (OH) should position Bowling Green for a spot in the MAC Championship Game—marking their first trip since capturing the title in 2015.
Prediction for Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green
The MAC is famous for its midweek madness, but this season has taken the chaos to another level. With just three weeks remaining, four teams are tied at the top, while two more are lurking, ready to capitalize if anyone stumbles. Among the contenders, Western Michigan (4-1) and Bowling Green (4-1) face off on Tuesday in a matchup with everything on the line—and everything to lose.
Can the Broncos rebound after suffering their first MAC loss of the season, or will the Falcons—riding a three-game winning streak—continue their ascent and take control of the race to Detroit for the MAC Championship Game? Who holds the edge in this pivotal clash, and where will the key battles be decided?
Western Michigan thrives when their rushing offense is firing on all cylinders, and the 2024 Broncos are no exception. With three running backs—Jaden Nixon, Jalen Buckley, and Zahir Abdus-Salaam—sharing the load, they average 37.7 rush attempts per game. While quarterback Hayden Wolff brings a respectable passing threat, the Broncos lean heavily on their ground game to set the tone.
When the trio of backs is in rhythm, Western Michigan becomes nearly unstoppable. This season, they rank among the nation’s top 25 in yards per carry (5.55), rushing touchdowns (22), and rushing yards per game (209.22). They’ve also excelled in the red zone, converting 75% of their trips into touchdowns—the best rate in the MAC.
That formula has propelled them to five wins so far and should present a challenge for Bowling Green on Tuesday night. However, the Falcons have proven resilient against the run, employing a bend-but-don’t-break approach. They’ve allowed 168.22 rushing yards per game but only nine rushing touchdowns, and their red zone defense is the best in the conference.
For Western Michigan, this matchup has shades of their defeat against Northern Illinois. Not only could they struggle against Bowling Green’s sturdy defense, but the Falcons’ dynamic duo of Terion Stewart and Jaison Patterson is poised to shine against a Broncos team that has allowed 21 rushing touchdowns this season. And don’t overlook Harold Fannin Jr., who could also make a significant impact for the Falcons.
Prediction: Western Michigan 24, Bowling Green 30
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