For the Cincinnati Bearcats, a win means a return to bowl eligibility. For the Iowa State Cyclones, it’s a chance to snap their skid, solidify their standing as one of the nation’s top programs, and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive.
Our Cincinnati vs. Iowa State prediction examines the Cyclones’ chances of bouncing back in Week 12.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All Cincinnati vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa State -9 - Spread
Iowa State -7 - Moneyline
Iowa State -250, Cincinnati +205 - Over/Under
53 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Jack Trice Stadium | Ames, IA - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, mostly cloudy, 16 mph winds - How To Watch
FOX
This spread finally found its way back to Iowa State -7.5 after teetering for the first few days this week. However, the totals haven’t seen much movement either as it opened at 52.5 and has only come up one point to 53.
Cincinnati’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Power Meter, the Bearcats have a 25.1% chance of defeating the Cyclones on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If the win probabilities hold, Cincinnati will finish its 2024 campaign at 5-7. They’ve already improved on last year’s mark of 3-9, but it would mark the Bearcats’ first back-to-back losing seasons since 2016-2017, when they finished 4-8 each of those years.
- at Iowa State: 25.1%
- at Kansas State: 20.1%
- vs. TCU: 41.1%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Iowa State has a 74.9% chance of defeating Cincinnati on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Cyclones will most likely finish 9-3, depending on their final game of the season against Kansas State, which is projected as close to an actual coin flip as you can get. If the Cyclones can find a way to win out, it would be their first 10-win season in program history — a football program that played its first game in 1895.
- vs. Cincinnati: 74.9%
- at Utah: 58.9%
- vs. Kansas State: 49.6%
Prediction for Cincinnati vs. Iowa State
As Week 12 of college football rolls in, the Cyclones return to Jack Trice Stadium as the No. 17 team in the rankings, ready to take on the Bearcats. Iowa State, now at seven wins, is looking to snap a two-game skid, including a nine-point road loss to Kansas last week.
This matchup brings back memories of last season’s dominant showing when Iowa State cruised past Cincinnati 30-10 at Nippert Stadium. This year, both teams enter hungry—one aiming to stop the slide, the other battling to keep postseason hopes alive.
The spotlight shines on Iowa State’s defense as they look to hold strong at home. Allowing just 18.8 points per game, the Cyclones rank 19th nationally, showcasing consistency and discipline. On the ground, they’ve surrendered 1,558 rushing yards (173 per game) and 11 touchdowns this season, keeping opponents to just 169 total points—making their defense one of the toughest in the nation.
On offense, the Cyclones bring balance and firepower, averaging 31.7 points and over 435 yards per game, placing them among the top 50 nationally. Quarterback Rocco Becht has led the charge, throwing for 2,394 yards and 16 touchdowns this season.
Carson Hansen anchors the rushing attack with 492 yards and eight touchdowns, while Jaylin Noel has been a standout in the receiving game with 892 yards and five scores. Jayden Higgins has been equally dependable, adding 791 yards and seven touchdowns.
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Cincinnati, meanwhile, comes in averaging 28.6 points per game. Their rushing offense, ranked 55th nationally, churns out 170.6 yards per game. With 3,947 total yards and an even split of 16 passing and 15 rushing touchdowns, the Bearcats bring a balanced offensive attack.
After a strong start to the season, Iowa State has hit a rough patch, but a return to Ames could be just what they need to regain momentum. With a stout defense and a well-rounded offense, the Cyclones are well-positioned to secure the win and cover the spread this week, steering their season back on track.
Prediction: Iowa State 34, Cincinnati 23
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