In a season that has unraveled at an alarming pace, the Air Force Falcons find themselves adrift, standing at a somber 1-7. Fresh off a heart-wrenching defeat to the Army Black Knights, the echoes of that game linger — a reminder of battles fought and lost.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are fresh off a difficult loss themselves — a narrow 21-20 loss to the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Each snap of the ball carries with it a weight of expectation, but as the season wanes, one cannot help but ponder: Where is the resolve that has historically defined this Bulldog program?
Our Fresno State vs. Air Force prediction breaks down the reality of Air Force competing in this Mountain West battle.
Fresno State vs. Air Force Betting Preview
All Fresno State vs. Air Force odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Fresno State -9 - Spread
Fresno State -9.5 - Moneyline
Fresno State -360, Air Force +280 - Over/Under
40.5 points - Game time
9:45 p.m. ET - Location
Falcon Stadium | U.S. Air Force Academy, Col. - Predicted Weather at Kick
34 degrees, mostly sunny, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
FS1
Fresno State opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but that number has climbed to 9.5. The total jumped from the opening line of 40.5 up to 42.5. Since then, it has settled back down to the original opening number.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Air Force opened as a +235 moneyline dog, and just like the spread, that number has also climbed. It currently sits at +280.
Fresno State’s Winning Probability
According to the College Football Network’s Football Power Metric (CFN FPM), Fresno State has a 74.9 % chance of defeating Air Force on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Fresno State will finish between 6-6 or 7-5, depending on how their matchup with Colorado State turns out, a game that currently sits as a true coin flip. Regardless of the outcome of the remaining three games, the Bulldogs will fall short of the nine-win mark, a number they reached for three consecutive seasons from 2021-23
- at Air Force: 74.9%
- vs. Colorado State: 50%
- at UCLA: 34.3%
Air Force’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Air Force has a 25.1 % chance of defeating Fresno State on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Air Force Falcons are staring down a 1-11 season, a grim reality for a program that just a year ago celebrated a nine-win season. In 2024, however, they’d be winless in Mountain West play, a first in the program’s history.
- vs. Fresno State: 25.1%
- vs. Oregon State: 17.2%
- at Nevada: 26.2%
- at San Diego State: 25.1%
Prediction for Fresno State vs. Air Force
For a team that prides itself on resilience and discipline, it would be a staggering descent, one that underscores the struggles they’ve faced in nearly every phase of the game.
It’s been a season marked by struggle for Air Force, particularly on offense, where they’ve crossed the 21-point mark just once in 2024. In a conference crowded with talent, the Falcons sit at the bottom in yards (284.5) and points per game (13.8).
Air Force relies, as always, on its ground game to move the chains. Leading the charge is Cade Harris who, despite being a wide receiver, tops the team with 224 rushing yards and 221 receiving yards — a stark indicator of how much Air Force leans on him.
But with an average of 3.6 yards per carry, the rushing attack lacks the potency required to threaten defenses that can stack the box and dare them to throw. When forced to pass, they struggle; Quentin Hayes managed just 54 yards in the air and one interception in their road loss to Army.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The issues don’t end on offense. Defensively, Air Force has yet to find an answer for opponents’ passing games, surrendering 7.8 yards per attempt. This could be an invitation to dominate for a Fresno State team that thrives on the pass. The Bulldogs have the firepower, and when they need to run, they’re effective. For Air Force, it’s another Saturday where the challenge may simply be too great to overcome.
For the Bulldogs, the Falcons are the perfect opponent for a team in desperate need of getting back in the win column, especially with Colorado State and UCLA looming.
Prediction: Fresno State 24, Air Force 6
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