The AAC spotlight shines on Saturday afternoon as the 25th-ranked Army Black Knights head to Denton to face the North Texas Mean Green, with College Football Playoff implications on the line.
Who comes out on top? Our Army vs. North Texas prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Army vs. North Texas Betting Preview
All Army vs. North Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Army -9.5 - Spread
Army -6 - Moneyline
Army -230, North Texas +190 - Over/Under
67.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
DATCU Stadium | Denton, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, sunny and pleasant, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Saturday afternoon sees the eighth all-time meeting between Army and North Texas, and while the Mean Green won the last time the two teams met (also in Denton), the Black Knights hold a 5-2 head-to-head advantage heading into the game. After sweeping every team in front of them this fall, Army is favored to continue their 2024 winning streak.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
North Texas hasn’t fared well as an underdog this fall. Although they beat the South Alabama Jaguars in Week 1, the Mean Green is 1-3 when their opponent is favored. They’re 2-2 ATS as an underdog, but on average, they fail to cover by almost a touchdown. Army has a push and was a point from covering in their last two games, but it was 6-0 ATS before then.
Army’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Army has a 75.5% chance of beating North Texas on Saturday. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Black Knights during this remarkable season, projecting wins for all eight of their games in this undefeated run.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Army during the 2024 college football season:
- at North Texas: 75.5%
- vs. Notre Dame (neutral location): 33.1%
- vs. UTSA: 89%
- vs. Navy (neutral location): 78.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Black Knights would end the season with an 11-1 record and an undefeated AAC debut campaign. Jeff Monken’s team currently has a 30% chance of winning the conference, just behind the Tulane Green Wave, as per the CFN FPM.
North Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, North Texas has a 24.5% chance of beating the Black Knights on Saturday. While our metric has projected the correct result for most of the Mean Green’s games this year, the CFN FPM was wrong on their season-opening win over South Alabama.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for North Texas in the 2024 college football season:
- vs. Army: 24.5%
- at UTSA: 51.2%
- vs. East Carolina: 63.6%
- at Temple: 61.9%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Mean Green would end the year with an 8-4 overall record with a 5-3 AAC campaign. That would mark an impressive 180-degree flip from their first season in the American under Eric Morris.
Prediction for Army vs. North Texas
Coming in at No. 25 in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings, Army knows the stakes heading into their clash with North Texas. To stay in the playoff conversation and have any shot at overtaking Boise State, the Black Knights need to remain undefeated while delivering statement performances that catch the committee’s eye.
On the other side, North Texas is fighting for bowl eligibility after back-to-back losses to Memphis and Tulane, which likely ended their chances at an AAC Championship Game appearance.
So, who has the upper hand in this matchup, and where will the key battles be fought?
North Texas poses the toughest offensive challenge Army has faced this season. Head coach Eric Morris and offensive coordinator Jordan Davis have built an offensive juggernaut, capable of trading blows with almost anyone.
Averaging 40.8 points per game, the Mean Green rank sixth nationally in scoring offense.
Their aerial attack is even more impressive, sitting second in the nation for passing yards per game and touchdowns. Quarterback Chandler Morris leads the AAC in passing yards (2,873) and touchdowns (26) while pacing the nation with 359.1 passing yards per game.
His top target, former Washington State Cougar DT Sheffield, headlines a receiving corps featuring 10 players with double-digit catches.
Army’s defense, however, hasn’t met its match yet. Allowing just 11.2 points per game—a national-best figure—the Black Knights dominate nearly every AAC defensive metric. During their winning streak, they’ve allowed only 12 total touchdowns and have intercepted more passes than they’ve allowed through the air.
The real test on Saturday, though, will be Army’s offense against a North Texas defense that has struggled mightily, giving up 36.9 points per game. With two rushing touchdowns allowed per game and an average of 4.70 yards per carry, the Mean Green defense could be in for a long day against an Army ground game that thrives despite incorporating more passing concepts with quarterback Bryson Daily.
This clash of styles sets the stage for a fascinating showdown—who will emerge victorious?
Prediction: Army 40, North Texas 30
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