It’s been almost 40 years since they last met, but on Friday night, college football conference realignment brings the Iowa Hawkeyes and UCLA Bruins back together in an all-Big Ten tussle.
Who wins? Our Iowa vs. UCLA prediction covers all the key aspects, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Iowa vs. UCLA Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. UCLA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -8 - Spread
Iowa -5 - Moneyline
Iowa -205, UCLA +170 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Rose Bowl | Pasadena, CA - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, clear, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
Fox
While they haven’t met since 1986, this is the 10th all-time matchup between Iowa and UCLA. The Bruins hold a 6-3 head-to-head advantage (with one of the Hawkeyes’ wins coming by way of forfeit after UCLA won on the field), and they enter this Friday night matchup on something of a roll. However, Iowa is currently the oddsmakers’ favorite despite the line coming down.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Earlier in the week, DraftKings had the Hawkeyes at -6.5, but that line has come down to -5 by midweek, which bodes well for Iowa covering. They’re 5-3 ATS this year, as is UCLA, with both teams covering the spread in the last two games. There’s no trend to hop on, but given the CFN FPM spread is a field goal higher, it’s a solid bet to take the Hawkeyes to win and cover.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Iowa has a 73.8% chance of beating UCLA on Friday night. Our metric accurately projected the Hawkeyes’ last two wins over the Northwestern Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers and made them an underdog in their defeat to the Iowa State Cyclones in Week 2.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Iowa in the 2024 season:
- at UCLA: 73.8%
- at Maryland: 75.3%
- vs. Nebraska: 65.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Hawkeyes would end the year with a 9-3 record, including a 7-2 Big Ten campaign. Unless something dramatic happens down the stretch, Iowa would miss out on the College Football Playoff and Big Ten Championship Game.
UCLA’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives UCLA a 26.2% chance of beating the Hawkeyes on Friday night. It’s worth noting that our metric underestimated the Bruins in their last two games, making them an underdog in wins over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for UCLA in the 2024 season:
- vs. Iowa: 26.2%
- at Washington: 25.8%
- vs. USC 38.1%
- vs. Fresno State: 65.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Bruins would end the year with a 4-8 record while going 2-7 in Big Ten play. The program hasn’t had a losing season since 2020. Furthermore, the last time they only had two conference wins was in 2016.
Prediction for Iowa vs. UCLA
The Big Ten returns to Fox on Friday night with a matchup that doesn’t necessarily leap off the page as a barnburner but has the potential to be an exciting contrast of offensive styles and defensive acumen. After winning their last two games, UCLA is technically still in with a shot of bowl eligibility, but a win in the Rose Bowl against the odds is a must to keep that dream alive.
Iowa is already bowl-eligible, having won their last two games. The Hawkeyes would have hoped to be a Big Ten challenger this year despite the addition of four teams, but that dream looks tenuous at best. A loss here would completely eliminate their faintest of chances. So, who has the edge, and where will the pivotal battles play out?
The Deshaun Foster era at UCLA got off to a rocky start with a narrow Week 1 win over the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors followed by five consecutive defeats. The Bruins lacked offensive identity and firepower, while the defense was gorged by multiple teams, giving up 30+ points in three consecutive games.
While there are still some defensive question marks (more on that shortly), they’ve turned a corner offensively. Ethan Garbers has carved up opposition defenses in consecutive weeks, throwing six touchdowns, rushing for one score, compiling 602 passing yards, and completing 76.1% of his passes without throwing an interception. Right now, he is the UCLA offense.
Which might be a problem on Friday night. While Iowa has allowed 14 passing touchdowns this year, the Hawkeyes’ defense — led by linebacker Jay Higgins and multiple impact-making defensive backs — has also snagged the second most interceptions while restricting opposition quarterbacks to just 6.3 yards per pass attempt.
Garbers has thrown the second-most interceptions in the Big Ten this year.
While Iowa should be able to hold the Bruins offense in check, UCLA might struggle to tame Hawkeyes running back Kaleb Johnson. The standout rusher has tallied 1,279 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 7.5 yards per carry. He’s found the end zone every game this year, with seven multi-touchdown games.
Only four Big Ten teams have allowed more rushing scores than UCLA this year. Rutgers rusher Kyle Monangai tallied 106 yards and three scores against the Bruins, and I would expect Johnson to have a similar game in a Friday night Iowa win.
Prediction: Iowa 27, UCLA 17
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