Nearly 40 years have passed since their last matchup, but on Friday night, college football’s conference realignment brings the Iowa Hawkeyes and UCLA Bruins back together for an all-Big Ten clash.
Who comes out on top? Our Iowa vs. UCLA prediction dives into the key details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 season
Iowa vs. UCLA Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. UCLA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -8 - Spread
Iowa -7 - Moneyline
Iowa -238, UCLA +195 - Over/Under
45 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Rose Bowl | Pasadena, CA - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, clear, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
Fox
While they haven’t met since 1986, this is the 10th all-time matchup between Iowa and UCLA. The Bruins hold a 6-3 head-to-head advantage (with one of the Hawkeyes’ wins coming by way of forfeit after UCLA won on the field), and they enter this Friday night matchup on something of a roll. However, Iowa is currently the oddsmakers’ favorite despite the line coming down.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Earlier in the week, DraftKings had the Hawkeyes at -6.5, but that line had come down to -5 by midweek, which bodes well for Iowa covering. They’re 5-3 ATS this year, as is UCLA, with both teams covering the spread in the last two games. There’s no trend to hop on, but given the CFN FPM spread is a field goal higher, it’s a solid bet to take the Hawkeyes to win and cover.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Iowa has a 73.8% chance of beating UCLA on Friday night. Our metric accurately projected the Hawkeyes’ last two wins over the Northwestern Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers and made them an underdog in their defeat to the Iowa State Cyclones in Week 2.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Iowa in the 2024 season:
- at UCLA: 73.8%
- at Maryland: 75.3%
- vs. Nebraska: 65.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Hawkeyes would end the year with a 9-3 record, including a 7-2 Big Ten campaign. Unless something dramatic happens down the stretch, Iowa would miss out on the College Football Playoff and Big Ten Championship Game.
UCLA’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives UCLA a 26.2% chance of beating the Hawkeyes on Friday night. It’s worth noting that our metric underestimated the Bruins in their last two games, making them an underdog in wins over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for UCLA in the 2024 season:
- vs. Iowa: 26.2%
- at Washington: 25.8%
- vs. USC 38.1%
- vs. Fresno State: 65.7%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Bruins would end the year with a 4-8 record while going 2-7 in Big Ten play. The program hasn’t had a losing season since 2020. Furthermore, the last time they only had two conference wins was in 2016.
Prediction for Iowa vs. UCLA
The Big Ten returns to Fox on Friday night with a matchup that might not scream “must-watch,” but offers a compelling clash of offensive philosophies and defensive strengths. UCLA enters the game riding a two-game win streak and clinging to their bowl eligibility hopes. To keep those hopes alive, however, they’ll need to pull off a significant upset under the lights of the Rose Bowl.
Iowa, on the other hand, is already bowl-eligible after stringing together back-to-back wins. The Hawkeyes started the season with Big Ten title aspirations, even in a conference bolstered by four new additions. But now, those ambitions are hanging by a thread. A loss on Friday would officially close the door on their championship dreams. So, who holds the edge, and what will ultimately decide the game?
The Deshaun Foster era at UCLA didn’t exactly get off to a roaring start. After eking out a narrow Week 1 victory over Hawaii, the Bruins spiraled into a five-game losing streak. Offensive inconsistency plagued the team, and their defense surrendered 30+ points in three consecutive outings.
But in recent weeks, UCLA’s offense has found its groove. Quarterback Ethan Garbers has been electric, lighting up defenses with six touchdown passes, one rushing score, 602 passing yards, and a 76.1% completion rate—all without throwing an interception over the past two games. Right now, Garbers is the UCLA offense.
And that could be a problem for the Bruins. Iowa’s defense has allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season but ranks among the best in the Big Ten at taking the ball away. Anchored by linebacker Jay Higgins and a standout secondary, the Hawkeyes have pulled in the second-most interceptions in the conference and are holding opposing quarterbacks to just 6.3 yards per pass attempt.
For UCLA, the concern grows when considering Garbers’ vulnerability—he’s thrown the second-most interceptions in the Big Ten this year.
On the flip side, UCLA’s defense will have their hands full containing Iowa’s workhorse running back, Kaleb Johnson. Johnson has been a force this season, amassing 1,279 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging an eye-popping 7.5 yards per carry. He’s scored in every game, including seven multi-touchdown performances.
UCLA’s run defense has struggled, allowing more rushing touchdowns than all but four teams in the Big Ten. They were shredded by Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai, who tallied 106 yards and three scores. Johnson is primed for a similar performance, and his dominance could pave the way for an Iowa victory on Friday night.
Prediction: Iowa 27, UCLA 17
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