Michigan vs. Indiana Prediction: Kurtis Rourke, Hoosiers Offense to Come Up Big vs. Wolverines

    Our Michigan vs. Indiana prediction dives into whether the Hoosiers can rise to the occasion and pull off the win against a team they clearly overmatch.

    A few years ago, Indiana fans reveled in the rise of Michael Penix Jr., coining the playful nickname “9-Windiana.” Fast forward to Curt Cignetti’s debut season, and a nine-win campaign would now feel like falling short of expectations.

    Indiana’s road to a Big Ten Championship play-in game against Ohio State now goes straight through Michigan. The Wolverines, who’ve leaned heavily on a one-dimensional approach all season, face the task of disrupting Indiana’s perfect streak. Here’s our breakdown of which side we’re backing in this Michigan vs. Indiana showdown.

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    Michigan vs. Indiana Betting Preview

    All Michigan vs. Indiana odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Indiana -13
    • Spread
      Indiana -14.5
    • Moneyline
      Indiana -650, Michigan +470
    • Over/Under
      48 points
    • Game Time
      Nov. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET
    • Location
      Indiana University Memorial Stadium | Bloomington, Ind.
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      63 degrees, cloudy, 8 mph winds
    • How To Watch
      CBS

    The last time Indiana was favored over Michigan, the U.S. was embroiled in the Vietnam War, the NFL was approaching Super Bowl II, and man hadn’t yet set foot on the moon. Fifty-six years after 1968, the Hoosiers are favored again, this time by two touchdowns.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    With a total of 48.5 points and the spread at 14 points, Vegas expects a big Indiana win. The implied final score is close to 31-17 in favor of the Hoosiers.

    Michigan’s Winning Probability

    Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Wolverines are heavy underdogs in two of their final three games. Michigan needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility but only has a 17.2% chance to win this game, per the metric.

    • at Indiana: 17.2%
    • vs. Northwestern: 83.5%
    • at Ohio State: 10.2%

    Indiana’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, Indiana has an 82.8% chance of beating Michigan at home, which translates to a spread of about 13 points. The Hoosiers can win out to reach the Big Ten Championship, with the game against Ohio State essentially being a play-in game.

    • vs. Michigan: 82.8%
    • at Ohio State: 33.1%
    • vs. Purdue: 96.7%

    Prediction for Michigan vs. Indiana

    On paper, Indiana should have the upper hand. But there’s more to this matchup than meets the eye. Let’s break it down.

    First, two things can be true: Indiana is a legitimate Big Ten contender and a top-10 team, but their schedule hasn’t exactly been a gauntlet.

    That said, the soft schedule isn’t entirely Indiana’s fault—you can only play the teams put in front of you. The sticking point is that while Indiana has been blowing out opponents, those teams aren’t exactly juggernauts.

    The Hoosiers have only notched one win against a team with a winning record or a top-10 Big Ten ranking—a 5-4 Washington squad that hasn’t won a single game outside of Husky Stadium.

    Still, there’s no denying Indiana’s firepower. They’ve scored at least 40 points in every game Kurtis Rourke has started.

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    This matchup could have trap-game vibes with Ohio State looming, but Indiana has the luxury of a bye week to prepare. They should be ready to roll.

    Even with a finger injury limiting him last week, Rourke was sharp and effective. The big question here: can Michigan keep up?

    Michigan’s offense has been rough to watch. They’re leaning on an old-school Iowa-style blueprint—run the ball and play defense—but their rushing attack ranks outside the top 50, and the defense has cracks of its own, especially if they’re without top corner Will Johnson. Add in one of the worst passing games in the nation, and it’s a recipe for trouble.

    The Wolverines have scraped by against the Big Ten’s bottom tier, averaging just 17 points over their last four games.

    Indiana, on the other hand, seems poised to keep the momentum going. Offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti knows how critical it is to impress the College Football Playoff Committee, especially with a showdown against Ohio State on the horizon. Expect Indiana to come out firing and possibly hit the over on their own.

    While the Hoosiers don’t necessarily need a statement win, this is a golden opportunity to lay a beatdown on a traditional powerhouse—and they just might seize it.

    Indiana rolls: 10-Windiana.

    Prediction: Indiana 45, Michigan 15

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