A few years ago, the Indiana Hoosiers experienced some success with Michael Penix Jr., and the playful nickname “9-Windiana” was born. In Curt Cignetti’s first year in charge, the Hoosiers are in a spot where nine wins would feel incredibly disappointing.
Standing between Indiana and a Big Ten Championship play-in game against the Ohio State Buckeyes are the Michigan Wolverines. One-dimensional as they have been all year, can the Wolverines ruin Indiana’s perfect season? Find out which way we lean in this Michigan vs. Indiana prediction.
Michigan vs. Indiana Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Indiana odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Indiana -13 - Spread
Indiana -14 - Moneyline
Indiana -575, Michigan +425 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Indiana University Memorial Stadium | Bloomington, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
The last time Indiana was favored over Michigan, the U.S. was embroiled in the Vietnam War, the NFL was approaching Super Bowl II, and man hadn’t yet set foot on the moon. Fifty-six years after 1968, the Hoosiers are favored again, this time by two touchdowns.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 48.5 points and the spread at 14 points, Vegas expects a big Indiana win. The implied final score is close to 31-17 in favor of the Hoosiers.
Michigan’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Wolverines are heavy underdogs in two of their final three games. Michigan needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility but only has a 17.2% chance to win this game, per the metric.
- at Indiana: 17.2%
- vs. Northwestern: 83.5%
- at Ohio State: 10.2%
Indiana’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Indiana has an 82.8% chance of beating Michigan at home, which translates to a spread of about 13 points. The Hoosiers can win out to reach the Big Ten Championship, with the game against Ohio State essentially being a play-in game.
- vs. Michigan: 82.8%
- at Ohio State: 33.1%
- vs. Purdue: 96.7%
Prediction for Michigan vs. Indiana
On paper, Indiana should roll. But there are a ton of factors to consider here. Let’s break a few of them down.
First, two things can be true: Indiana is a legitimate Big Ten contender and top-10 team. Indiana has also played one of the softest schedules around.
That second part isn’t the Hoosiers’ fault. You play the teams in front of you. The problem is that while Indiana is steamrolling teams, the opponents just aren’t good.
The Hoosiers have beaten just one team either with a winning record or in the top 10 of the Big Ten — a 5-4 Washington team that is winless away from Husky Stadium.
Still, the Hoosiers have scored at least 40 points in every game Kurtis Rourke has started.
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This could be a trap game, as the Hoosiers play at Ohio State next, but there’s a bye week in between, so they should be good here.
Rourke clearly wasn’t 100% after returning last week from a finger injury, but he was plenty effective. So the only question here is whether Michigan can keep up.
This Michigan team is painful to watch on offense. The blueprint is supposed to be the old Iowa blueprint of “run the ball and play good defense,” but the Wolverines’ rushing attack is ranked outside of the top 50, and the defense isn’t great (and potentially missing its best player in corner Will Johnson. Add in one of the country’s worst pass offenses and it’s a recipe for disaster.
The Wolverines have been able to eke out victories against Big Ten bottom-dwellers, but they’ve averaged just 17 points a game in the last four.
I expect Indiana to continue to roll this week. Cignetti knows he also needs to impress the College Football Playoff Committee as a backup in case the team can’t beat Ohio State in two weeks. They won’t slow down and could get close to the over by themselves.
I don’t think Indiana needs a statement win, but this would certainly be a good time to beat up on a traditional power.
Indiana rolls: 10-Windiana.
Prediction: Indiana 45, Michigan 15
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