It’s the most wonderful time of the year. No, not Christmas. Midweek MACtion returns to our screens and hearts this Tuesday, with the Bowling Green Falcons taking on the Central Michigan Chippewas in the opening game of Week 11.
Who wins? Our Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan prediction covers all the key aspects, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan Betting Preview
All Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Bowling Green -7.5 - Spread
Bowling Green -13 - Moneyline
Bowling Green -470, Central Michigan +360 - Over/Under
49 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kelly/Shorts Stadium | Mount Pleasant, MI - Predicted Weather at Kick
46 degrees, cloudy with showers possible, 10 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Bowling Green and Central Michigan have largely avoided each other in recent years, with just nine matchups since the turn of the millennium. The Falcons have the better of their Tuesday night MACtion opponent, holding a 24-19 head-to-head advantage, winning the last game in 2022, and winning five of the last six in Mount Pleasant. Will that form hold true?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Bowling Green enters the game as a substantial favorite, which hasn’t always been an advantage for the Falcons, losing 50% of their 2024 games when favored. However, Central Michigan hasn’t won as an underdog all year. The Chippewas have also covered the spread just twice in 2024. Meanwhile, six games involving the Chips have exceeded the points total this year.
Bowling Green’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Bowling Green has a 73% chance of beating Central Michigan on Tuesday night. Our metric correctly projected the Falcons’ win against the odds against the Toledo Rockets while having tighter projections than the official odds for the close-fought losses to Power Four opposition.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Bowling Green in 2024:
- at Central Michigan: 73%
- vs. Western Michigan: 55.6%
- at Ball State: 70.3%
- vs. Miami (OH): 53.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Falcons would end the year with an 8-4 overall record. Furthermore, they’d have a 7-1 MAC record that would likely be good enough for a spot in the conference championship game. Both records would be the best for the program since the 2015 season.
Central Michigan’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Central Michigan has a 27% chance of felling the Falcons on Tuesday night. Our metric projected the Week 2 loss to the FIU Panthers when the oddsmakers favored the Chippewas. That said, the CFN FPM made them an underdog in the win over the San Diego State Aztecs.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Central Michigan in the 2024 season:
- vs. Bowling Green: 27%
- at Toledo: 32.3%
- vs. Western Michigan: 33.1%
- at Northern Illinois: 26.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Chippewas would end the year with a 3-9 record. Furthermore, they’d slump to a 1-7 conference record, their worst since 2018. That would mark three successive losing seasons, heaping pressure on head coach Jim McElwain.
Prediction for Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan
Forget the election. There’s only one thing you can truly rely on this Tuesday night, and that’s the return of MACtion bringing midweek mayhem into your lives. We’re only partly joking, as you should absolutely use your vote. Still, the Bowling Green and Central Michigan matchup is where the real action is at, as the 4-4 Falcons take on the 3-5 Chippewas on ESPN2.
Can Scot Loeffler’s team take another step on the road to Detroit and the MAC Championship Game with a win? Or will McElwain’s Chippewas throw a spanner in the works as they seek to keep themselves relevant in the conference and bowl game conversation? Who has the edge, and where will the pivotal battles play out?
It’s been tough sledding for Central Michigan so far this season. They have two narrow FBS wins on their resume but enter this matchup on a three-game losing streak where the margin of defeat has gotten bigger each week. The offense hasn’t been too bad (more on that shortly), but the defense ranks 113th nationally for points allowed and has struggled to hold teams on fourth-down attempts.
That has resulted in five games in which the Chippewas have given up 30 or more points (including the last two games). When the Bowling Green offense is in form, it can be devastating despite only averaging 27.1 points per game. Connor Bazelak leads the MAC in completion percentage, Harold Fannin Jr. is comfortably the best tight end in college football, and the Falcons can also run the rock behind Terion Stewart.
Meanwhile, the Central Michigan offense is somewhat one-dimensional. They’ve got explosive playmakers in Marion Lukes and Myles Bailey, and when quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. is healthy, he adds a unique athletic skill set to the ground game. However, Joey Labas offers little in the passing game, so if the Falcons can stop the run, the Chippewas will struggle to keep pace with the Bowling Green offense.
The Falcons can stop the run. Although they’re a mid-MAC team in terms of rushing yards per game and per carry allowed while giving up the third-most rushing plays of 10+ yards, they’ve tended to be a bend-don’t-break unit that has given up just seven rushing touchdowns in the 2024 season. If you’re looking for a difference maker in a Bowling Green win, linebacker Joseph Sipp Jr. has lived in opposition backfields this season.
Prediction: Bowling Green 37, Central Michigan 20
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