After Week 2, the Colorado Buffaloes and Texas Tech Red Raiders seemed down for the count, but both have revived their seasons and now find themselves with an outside shot at the Big 12 Championship Game.
The jokes about Colorado are old news as the Buffaloes keep winning, and Texas Tech may have finally pieced together a defense sturdy enough to support their offense. So, who stays on fire, and who falls behind? Dive into our Colorado vs. Texas Tech prediction to find out.
Colorado vs. Texas Tech Betting Preview
All Colorado vs. Texas Tech odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas Tech -2.5 - Spread
Colorado -3.5 - Moneyline
Colorado -175, Texas Tech +145 - Over/Under
63 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 4 p.m. ET - Location
Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, sunny, 13 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
This is an intriguing matchup and line. The Buffaloes are three-point road favorites as they come off a bye week. Texas Tech has been somewhat unpredictable this season, but Vegas’ metrics have slated the Red Raiders as underdogs.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 63 points and the spread so close, Vegas expects a tightly contested, high-scoring contest. The implied final score is close to 33-30 in favor of the Buffaloes.
Colorado’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Buffaloes have the second-best odds to win the conference. That doesn’t mean they don’t have some difficult games down the stretch, highlighted by this one in which the metric has them as underdogs. Colorado has a 45.7% chance to win Saturday per FPM, its hardest remaining game of the year.
- at Texas Tech: 45.7%
- vs. Utah: 65.7%
- at Kansas: 65.1%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 76.6%
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas Tech has a 54.3% chance of beating the Buffaloes at home, which translates to a spread of around 2.5 points. FPM still thinks the Red Raiders have at least a chance at the Big 12 title, but a loss to Colorado would end that dream.
- vs. Colorado: 54.3%
- at Oklahoma State: 64.1%
- vs. West Virginia: 63.1%
Prediction for Colorado vs. Texas Tech
There are times when I’m not thrilled about making game predictions. Usually, I have a clear opinion on which way I lean, but this time, I’m torn.
I expect this game to be wildly entertaining, but I keep going back and forth on which team to back.
Shedeur Sanders grabs most of the spotlight, but Texas Tech’s Behren Morton has been quietly excellent this season, with 19 touchdowns and only five picks. And he’s not even the primary focus of their offense.
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That role belongs to running back Tahj Brooks, who’s been one of the country’s top backs, despite pushing through some minor injuries. Now healthy, he’s rushed for over 100 yards in every game this season.
Still, even with Texas Tech’s defense showing signs of improvement recently, I doubt they can pressure Sanders. When he’s had time (and a healthy set of receivers), Sanders has been nearly unstoppable.
The key question is whether the run game can provide just enough balance for the offense.
Both teams should light up the scoreboard in classic Big 12 shootout fashion. But I think each defense will find a moment or two to create some chaos and grab a turnover. Whoever keeps it cleanest late is likely to hang on.
I lean toward the over rather than picking a side, but with FPM on my mind, I’ll give the edge to the Red Raiders in a close, exciting game.
Prediction: Texas Tech 41, Colorado 38
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