If you’d said in the preseason that the North Carolina Tar Heels would be favored against the Florida State Seminoles in early November, you’d probably think it was because the Tar Heels were a dark horse for the College Football Playoff, not a team whose coach nearly quit last month.
But that’s the state of things. The Tar Heels are 1-3 in conference and still ahead of the Seminoles in a wild ACC. A loss Saturday would simply ampify the calls for Mack Brown to retire, while Florida State is trying to make a four-win season a possibility. Find out which team is less inept in this North Carolina vs. Florida State prediction.
North Carolina vs. Florida State Betting Preview
All North Carolina vs. Florida State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
North Carolina -1 - Spread
North Carolina -2.5 - Moneyline
North Carolina -135, Florida State +114 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Doak Campbell Stadium | Tallahassee, Florida - Predicted Weather at Kick
83 degrees, partly cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
ACC Network
Neither of these teams have been particularly inspiring this season, particularly against power conference competition, as the teams have a combined three wins against the Power Four. North Carolina bounced back last week to earn its first ACC win of the season over Virginia to get to 1-3 in conference, while the Seminoles are 1-6 heading into their conference finale.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
These are two of the worst teams in college football against the spread, as the Seminoles are 2-5-1 against the spread, and the Tar Heels are 1-6-1 compared to expectations. Accordingly, bettors have had difficulty figuring out what to do with this one. The spread has ticked up slightly in North Carolina’s favor, while the total has been bet down from 50.5 to 49.5. The implied score here is around 26-24 in favor of the Tar Heels.
North Carolina’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, North Carolina has a 51.8% chance of beating Florida State on Saturday afternoon. Our metric thinks the Tar Heels could be one of the most interesting teams over the last month of the season, as every remaining game has an implied spread of less than seven points. If the ball bounces their way, the Tar Heels could put together a nice winning season. If it doesn’t, this could be a disaster.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Tar Heels in the 2024 season:
- at Florida State: 51.8%
- vs. Wake Forest: 53.4%
- at Boston College: 32.3%
- vs. NC State: 49.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, North Carolina would end the year with a 6-6 record. But every remaining game could go either way.
Florida State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives Florida State a 48.2% chance to win on Saturday. The Seminoles have two extremely difficult games remaining on the schedule, as well as an FCS game, so this could be the one that determines if the Seminoles have a truly awful season or just a bad one.
The remaining win probabilities for the Seminoles in the 2024 season are below:
- vs. North Carolina: 48.2%
- at Notre Dame: 5.9%
- vs. Charleston Southern: 91.1%
- vs. Florida: 27%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Florida State would end the season with a 2-10 record. That would be 11 fewer losses than a season ago and likely the worst record of any Power Conference team in 2024. The coin-flip game is this one against the Tar Heels, meaning that if the Seminoles want to avoid a two-win season, they’ll likely need to win this one.
Prediction for North Carolina vs. Florida State
The Florida State defense has actually been decent in the last few weeks. Unfortunately, the offense has remained comically bad. There are just two teams in all of Division I football — both FCS and FBS — that have not scored more than 21 points in a game this season. Florida State is the only team on that list to reach 20 only once.
In fact, the Seminoles haven’t reached 17 points since returning to U.S. soil after a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland in Week 0. The offense is abysmal, no matter what the coaching staff tries.
And yet, I really like the Seminoles in this one.
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North Carolina has had its share of issues this season as well, losing starting quarterback Max Johnson for the season in the opener before getting off to a 3-0 start, only to get embarrassed by James Madison and lose its first three ACC games.
But the Tar Heels still have plenty to play for. Four winnable games remain on the schedule, and a 5-0 finish to the year could kick-start their recruiting.
However, Mack Brown is getting old. Whatever the “almost retirement” fiasco after James Madison was, it’s clear he’s considering hanging it up. This might be his last season, and while he’ll want to end on a high note, that’s easier said than done.
He’s also never beaten Florida State in his career. That’s right, 0-11 against the Seminoles.
This is a bit of a reprieve for a Florida State offense that hasn’t faced a defense outside of the top 50 in SP+ defensive rating since Week 3 against Memphis. It’s not like the Seminoles’ offense has been any better against bad defenses, but they’ll at least have a chance to score against North Carolina this weekend.
I have no idea what Florida State will do at quarterback. That puts me on par with Mike Norvell and offensive coordinator Alex Atkins, who have had no answers this season.
The Seminoles can find some success on the ground, at least enough to keep its defense off the field.
If the Seminoles win this one, it will be by making it ugly and slowing the game down. This Florida State team hasn’t shown the ability to beat anyone in a shootout, but I think the Seminoles can force some turnovers and do just enough when moving the ball to score 20-24.
If that happens, I like them to beat the Tar Heels on Saturday.
Prediction: Florida State 21, North Carolina 17
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