The Minnesota Golden Gophers may hold a 40-33-3 edge in the all-time series, but the Illinois Fighting Illini have claimed victory in the last three meetings. Will the Gophers flip the script this time?
In our Minnesota vs. Illinois preview, we dive into the matchup and provide essential betting insights to help you make the smartest picks.
Minnesota vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Minnesota vs. Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Illinois -5.5 - Spread
Minnesota -3 - Moneyline
Minnesota -155, Illinois +130 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 2 - Location
Memorial Stadium | Champaign, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, 8 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
FS1
Both teams are hot against the spread this season, with Minnesota 6-1-1 and Illinois 5-2. However, the Gophers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Illini and 2-5 in their last seven on the road.
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The total is a little more double-sided, specifically for Illinois. The under has hit in six of the program’s previous eight contests, but the score went over in four of its last five November bouts.
Minnesota’s Winning Probability
The Golden Gophers are one win from bowl eligibility, but there’s no guarantee they’ll get that win over their final four games. They’re on the road for three of the contests and favored to win by the FPM in only one contest overall:
- at Illinois: 35.4%
- at Rutgers: 53.8%
- vs. Penn State: 18.9%
- at Wisconsin: 38.1%
Illinois’ Winning Probability
The Fighting Illini already have six wins on the year, but at 3-2 in the conference with 60% or higher win probabilities the rest of the way, they still have an outside chance at the Big Ten title game.
- vs. Minnesota: 64.6%
- vs. Michigan State: 74.6%
- at Rutgers: 64.6%
- at Northwestern: 80.6%
Prediction for Minnesota vs. Illinois
The Golden Gophers extended their Big Ten win streak with a decisive 48-23 victory over the Maryland Terrapins in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini stumble into this matchup after a rough 38-9 loss to the Oregon Ducks.
Turnovers will be critical in this game. Illinois holds a perfect 5-0 record when winning the turnover margin, while Minnesota is 0-3 when they lose it. The Gophers are riding a +7 turnover margin over their three-game conference streak, committing just one turnover along the way.
Even with two giveaways against Oregon, Illinois still holds a season turnover margin of +6.
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If both teams protect the ball, it’ll all come down to third-down efficiency. Minnesota ranks 17th nationally with a 47.0% conversion rate on third downs, while Illinois struggles, allowing opponents to convert at a 45.0% clip—116th in the country.
With QB Max Brosmer in top form (completing 70% or more in his last three games) and RB Darius Taylor set to challenge Illinois’ shaky run defense (ranked 78th, allowing 154.8 rushing yards per game), the road favorite looks ready to win and cover in this one.
Prediction: Minnesota 27, Illinois 20
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