If your sportsbook offered lines before the season, I hope you took the under for this one as the Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers both come in with underwhelming offensive units.
In what has the potential to be one of the weirder games of the weekend, our Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction takes a look at what to do with two very inconsistent teams.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All Kentucky vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -19 - Spread
Tennessee -16.5 - Moneyline
Tennessee -800, Kentucky +550 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Neyland Stadium | Knoxville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
While the Tennessee and Kentucky offenses have struggled mightily, the defenses have been excellent. Tennessee has pulled out more of their close games and still have a shot at the College Football Playoff, so a win Saturday would be extremely important.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The line currently sits at Tennessee -16.5, where it has been since the start of the week, despite most of the bets being on the Volunteers to cover. The total is at 45.5 points, implying a final score close to 31-14 in favor of the Volunteers.
Kentucky’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit lower on the Wildcats, who are 19-point underdogs, with a win probability of just 7.7% per the metric. The metric has the Wildcats as underdogs in every remaining game against FBS foes, and at this point, bowl eligibility seems extremely unlikely.
- at Tennessee: 7.7%
- vs. Murray State: 96%
- at Texas: 6.1%
- vs. Louisville: 42.8%
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Tennessee a 92.3% chance to win and has the Volunteers as heavy favorites in four of their remaining five games. A date with Georgia looms large as the Volunteers try to look good for the College Football Playoff Committee
- vs. Kentucky: 92.3%
- vs. Mississippi State: 98.8%
- at Georgia: 31.2%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.1%
Prediction for Kentucky vs. Tennessee
The narrative has shifted around each of these teams in a somewhat similar way since the beginning of the season.
Coming into the year, there were high hopes for both of these teams, largely due to their quarterbacks. While neither had extensive starting experience, Nico Iamaleava and Brock Vandagriff were the two highest-ranked recruits among SEC starting quarterbacks to begin the season.
People just assumed both former five-star recruits would be top starters in the SEC, but two-thirds of the way through the year, it might be a stretch to call them average SEC starters.
Vandagriff has really struggled to push the ball down the field against any team with a semblance of a pass rush. He’s had some ugly interceptions as well
Iamaleava has flashed, but he’s been far too inconsistent with his deep ball and his pocket awareness has left much to be desired. That being said, he should have time to throw and opportunities down the field against a Kentucky defense that has thrived against poor offensive lines and struggled when quarterbacks have time.
I have my doubts about the spread here. Kentucky has shown both an ability to keep games against great teams close (Georgia, Ole Miss) and a tendency to let things spiral when they’re going poorly (South Carolina, Florida).
So, this could finish 13-12 or 31-14. I don’t have a great feel for it. With his back against the wall, Mark Stoops usually puts together a good game plan, and I think the Wildcats could control some clock and run the ball well. I just don’t expect anything good to happen when Vandagriff has to drop back to pass against this defensive line.
Conversely, if Iamaleava can connect on some deep balls, Tennessee can get some quick scores. If not, it’ll be another long night for the offense.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
I don’t feel confident in this, but I think I like the Wildcats to cover. If they do, it’ll be by making the game ugly and frustrating the Tennessee rushing attack.
What I do like is the under, as points will be at a premium. Unders aren’t flashy, but they’re a great way to profit in November. You might sweat a bit with the low number but don’t expect Kentucky’s offense to do much to threaten it while the defense plays well in a closer-than-expected loss.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Kentucky 13
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.