The Mississippi State Bulldogs have faced their share of challenges under first-year head coach Jeff Lebby, but there are encouraging signs, especially on offense.
With the UMass Minutemen heading to Starkville, the Bulldogs have a strong opportunity to secure another victory. But by how much? And could UMass muster enough offense to push this game over the total? Dive into our UMass vs. Mississippi State prediction to find out.
UMass vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All UMass vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Mississippi State -6.5 - Spread
Mississippi State -18.5 - Moneyline
Mississippi State -1100, UMass +700 - Over/Under
60 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 4:15 p.m. ET - Location
Davis Wade Stadium | Starkville, Miss. - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Both Mississippi State and UMass have had forgettable years this season. Neither team has beaten an FBS opponent and has a unit (or two, in the case of UMass) that is really struggling.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The line currently sits at Mississippi State -18.5, where it’s been since the start of the week. The total is at 60 points, implying a final score close to 39-21 in favor of the Bulldogs.
UMass’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit higher on the Minutemen, just eight-point underdogs to an SEC foe, with a win probability of 32.3% per the metric. The metric has the Minutemen as underdogs in every remaining game, though their win probabilities range from 0.1% to 47%.
- at Mississippi State: 32.3%
- vs. Liberty: 24.7%
- at Georgia: 0.1%
- vs. UConn: 47.2%
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Mississippi State a 67.7% chance to win but has the Bulldogs as heavy underdogs in their other three games. Mississippi State desperately needs a win Saturday, or a 1-11 season looks likely.
- vs. UMass: 67.6%
- at Tennessee: 1.2%
- vs. Missouri: 13.2%
- at Ole Miss: 4.7%
Prediction for UMass vs. Mississippi State
Our FPM tool is impressive. If it has a shortcoming, it’s that it sometimes struggles with big spreads or lopsided matchups. This explains why there’s a 10-point gap between the Vegas spread and FPM’s line.
Mississippi State’s issue is clear: it’s the defense. But on Saturday, that might not matter as much, given that UMass has the lowest-ranked offense in the FBS, and it’s not a close race.
The Minutemen are dead last in points per game and points per play and rank in the bottom 30 for both yards per rush and yards per pass. Their offense lacks both efficiency and explosiveness.
Mississippi State’s defense isn’t just bad by SEC standards—it’s in the bottom 10 nationally in both yards per rush and yards per pass allowed, surrendering 7.3 yards per play.
Something’s got to give.
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The key differences in this matchup are the level of competition and the other side of the ball.
UMass’s dismal offensive stats come against one of the country’s easiest schedules. Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s poor defensive numbers have come from facing a brutal lineup of offenses.
When up against a struggling offense, I expect the Bulldogs to step up and keep UMass closer to their average of 13.8 points per game than Mississippi State’s own 40.6 ppg allowed.
Then there’s the offense, where Mississippi State has been seeing more success with true freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. at the helm.
I anticipate the Bulldogs will finally put together a solid performance on both sides of the ball against an overmatched UMass team. The Minutemen may blitz the freshman, but I trust Mississippi State’s offense to rack up around 35-40 points. Even with Mississippi State’s defensive struggles, UMass likely won’t score enough to cover.
Take the Bulldogs and the points in a game that just sneaks under the total.
Prediction: Mississippi State 41, UMass 17
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