There are only eight undefeated teams remaining in college football, and yet, the Iowa State Cyclones are still flying under the radar. Maybe it’s the lack of marquee wins or true blowouts on their schedule, or maybe it’s simply that they weren’t getting much attention in the preseason, and that has spilled into the regular season. Either way, they’re unbeaten and underappreciated.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been hot and cold this season. Can they ruin a perfect season on Saturday? Find out if we think the Red Raiders can pull off the upset in this Texas Tech vs. Iowa State prediction.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All Texas Tech vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa State -9.5 - Spread
Iowa State -14.5 - Moneyline
Iowa State -650, Texas Tech +470 - Over/Under
56 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Jack Trice Stadium | Ames, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, rainy, 13 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Last week’s results encapsulate each team’s entire season. The Red Raiders lost a game they absolutely should have won, botching an end-of-game situation in which they had the ball in field-goal range, down one, at the end of the game and never attempted a kick.
Iowa State, on the other hand, was outplayed by UCF and still managed to win late.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Cyclones are just over two-touchdown favorites. With a total of 56 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 35-21 in favor of Iowa State.
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Sitting at 5-3, the Red Raiders are one win away from bowl eligibility but have stalled in recent weeks, taking back-to-back losses to Baylor and TCU. That’s hurt their season’s outlook.
According to CFN’s FPM, Texas Tech has a win probability of just 24.5% in this game. The final three games are true toss-ups, meaning there are a wide range of potential outcomes for the year.
- at Iowa State: 24.5%
- vs. Colorado: 50.6%
- at Oklahoma State: 48.8%
- vs. West Virginia: 52.5%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Iowa State has a 75.5% chance of overcoming the Red Raiders at home. If the Cyclones can pull out the win on Saturday, it won’t be time to put them on watch for an undefeated season, but they will likely be favored in their final four games.
- vs. Texas Tech: 75.5%
- at Kansas: 75.5%
- vs. Cincinnati: 82.6%
- at Utah: 66.4%
- vs. Kansas State: 55.6%
Prediction for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Texas Tech has been extremely inconsistent this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Red Raiders have given up 35 points in five of eight games this year, including all three losses, but had looked to settle in before allowing 59 to Baylor two weeks ago.
Quarterback Behren Morton also left the last game with an injury, something that directly contributed to the Red Raiders’ loss. True freshman Will Hammond played well in relief but had a critical fumble late in the game that cost Texas Tech a chance to kick a potential game-winning field goal.
Morton’s injury looks to be some sort of collarbone or shoulder injury to his non-throwing arm, and his status is uncertain for Saturday’s game.
However, it might not matter.
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Iowa State survived a scare against the UCF Knights two weeks ago, coming back from 14 points down in the third quarter and eight points down in the fourth quarter to secure a late victory despite one of quarterback Rocco Becht’s worst games of his career.
The Cyclones are balanced and have shown the ability to win both shootouts and low-scoring games. They should be able to move the ball on Texas Tech’s defense and get to that 35-point mark that has plagued the Red Raiders.
This line is tricky because I think 14 points is about fair. Ultimately, I haven’t seen enough from the Cyclones to think they’ll blow out any decent team, but they’ll score enough to hit the over, even as Texas Tech covers.
Prediction: Iowa State 38, Texas Tech 28
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