Duke vs. Miami Prediction: Cam Ward Puts Blue Devils in Their Place

    Can the Blue Devils remain on the same field as the Hurricanes in Week 10? Dive into our Duke vs. Miami prediction to find out.

    The Miami Hurricanes have largely owned the Duke Blue Devils, resulting in a 15-5 series lead. However, Duke embarrassed the ‘Canes in the last matchup, winning 45-21 on the road.

    In our Duke vs. Miami preview, we dive into the matchup, offer essential betting insights, and provide tips to help you make the best wagering decisions.

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    Duke vs. Miami Betting Preview

    All Duke vs. Miami odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Miami -14.5
    • Spread
      Miami -20
    • Moneyline
      Miami -1350, Duke +800
    • Over/Under
      54.5 points
    • Game Time
      Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 2
    • Location
      Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens, Fla.
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      76 degrees, 9 mph winds, partly cloudy
    • How To Watch
      ABC | ESPN+

    Miami has scored 36+ in every contest this season. Duke has scored over 20 in all but one game. Yeah, the total might be too low — but there are a couple of trends that point to why:

    • The under hit in six of the Blue Devils’ last nine games
    • The under hit in four of the previous six Duke-Miami meetings.

    MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

    Duke has made bettors money against the spread this year, going 4-0-1 over the last five games. Pair that with Week 10 historically being a down ATS week for Miami (1-5 in the last six), and the Blue Devils may pay out once again. Duke is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games.

    Duke’s Winning Probability

    The Blue Devils have surprised in their first season under Manny Diaz, going 6-2, extending their bowl streak to three years. However, adding to the win column won’t be easy the rest of the way, with four straight conference battles, including three on the road, rounding out the schedule.

    • at Miami: 13.2%
    • at NC State: 50.8%
    • vs. Virginia Tech: 47.2%
    • at Wake Forest: 61.1%

    Miami’s Winning Probability

    The Hurricanes are one of just eight undefeated teams remaining in the 2024 campaign, and it’s difficult to see them falling out of the prestigious group in the regular season. The FPM gives them a 75% or great win probability in their final four games, leading to berths in the ACC Championship and College Football Playoff.

    • vs. Duke: 86.8%
    • at Georgia Tech: 75.3%
    • vs. Wake Forest: 93.4%
    • at Syracuse: 80.2%

    Prediction for Duke vs. Miami

    There is no other place to begin a Duke-Miami prediction than with the quarterbacks. Cam Ward (281) and Maalik Murphy (280) have both aired it out this year, but that’s where the comparisons end.

    Ward is a Heisman contender, throwing nearly 1,000 more yards and seven more TDs than Murphy while also being a legitimate threat on the ground. Conversely, the Duke QB is a 6’5″ statue in the pocket, playing well in a system aimed at getting the ball out quickly over the middle while sprinkling in some deep shots.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    However, Murphy has really struggled to connect in the intermediate parts of the field, forcing the offense into third-down situations that it’s unable to convert (30.1%, 127th).

    The scheme’s quick pace of play will negate some of Miami’s pass-rush prowess, but it’s difficult to see a path to success, especially with the ground game averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per attempt.

    Take Miami to win and cover, although the under is the play for the total.

    Prediction: Miami 37, Duke 13

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