The Miami Hurricanes have long held the upper hand over the Duke Blue Devils, boasting a 15-5 series record. But in their last meeting, Duke flipped the script, pulling off a commanding 45-21 win on Miami’s home turf.
In our Duke vs. Miami preview, we’ll dive into the details of this matchup, highlight essential betting insights, and provide tips to guide your wagers.
Duke vs. Miami Betting Preview
All Duke vs. Miami odds odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -14.5 - Spread
Miami -21 - Moneyline
Miami -1650, Duke +950 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 2 - Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, 9 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
ABC | ESPN+
Miami has scored 36+ in every contest this season. Duke has scored over 20 in all but one game. Yeah, the total might be too low — but there are a couple of trends that point to why:
- The under hit in six of the Blue Devils’ last nine games
- The under hit in four of the previous six Duke-Miami meetings.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Duke has made bettors money against the spread this year, going 4-0-1 over the last five games. Pair that with Week 10 historically being a down ATS week for Miami (1-5 in the last six), and the Blue Devils may pay out once again. Duke is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games.
Duke’s Winning Probability
The Blue Devils have surprised in their first season under Manny Diaz, going 6-2, extending their bowl streak to three years. However, adding to the win column won’t be easy the rest of the way, with four straight conference battles, including three on the road, rounding out the schedule.
- at Miami: 13.2%
- at NC State: 50.8%
- vs. Virginia Tech: 47.2%
- at Wake Forest: 61.1%
Miami’s Winning Probability
The Hurricanes are one of just eight undefeated teams remaining in the 2024 campaign, and it’s difficult to see them falling out of the prestigious group in the regular season. The FPM gives them a 75% or great win probability in their final four games, leading to berths in the ACC Championship and College Football Playoff.
- vs. Duke: 86.8%
- at Georgia Tech: 75.3%
- vs. Wake Forest: 93.4%
- at Syracuse: 80.2%
Prediction for Duke vs. Miami
A Duke-Miami prediction has to start with the quarterbacks. Cam Ward and Maalik Murphy have both been lighting it up this season, but that’s where the similarities end.
Ward, a Heisman contender, has thrown for almost 1,000 more yards and seven extra touchdowns compared to Murphy, and he’s a true dual threat on the ground. On the other hand, Duke’s QB is a 6’5″ pocket passer who excels in a system focused on quick, efficient throws over the middle, with the occasional deep shot thrown in.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Murphy has had issues with accuracy on intermediate throws, which frequently leaves the offense in tough third-down spots they struggle to convert (30.1%, 127th nationally).
While the scheme’s quick tempo could help neutralize some of Miami’s pass rush, the outlook isn’t bright, especially with Duke’s run game averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.
Miami is the pick to win and cover, with the under looking like a solid play on the total.
Prediction: Miami 37, Duke 13
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